Cautionary Country And Region Economic Conditions

What’s Inside:

  • Purchasing Managers’ index for selected countries and regions
  • Long-term PMI trend lines
  • World Bank GDP growth forecasts by country and region
  • Valuation metrics for ETF proxies for selected countries and regions
  • 3-Year monthly return chars with trend lines for proxy ETFs

Purchasing Managers’ Index

The PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) around the world forecast weak growth to negative growth in manufacturing, and weak to moderate growth in services over the near term; with the composite of manufacturing and services forecasting weak growth. 

PMI is based on a monthly survey of businesses to gauge current conditions and trend.It is a short-term coincident indicator with short-term forecasting utility.Once plotted in a long-term chart, the PMI may have intermediate-term trend forecasting utility.

The index centers around 50 and ranges from 0 to 100.Values above 50 indicate growth and values below 50 indicate contraction.

In the table above, pink shaded cells show contraction; and bold red values indicate the current index value is lower than the prior monthly value.

United States manufacturing is hovering just above the growth flat line, as does services.

The Eurozone is in clear manufacturing contraction, but with moderate services growth.

China manufacturing is barely growing after slightly contracting.Its services are in mild growth.

Japan manufacturing is in contraction, and services are growing modestly.

Germany is in strong manufacturing contraction, and services are growing moderately.

United Kingdom is in manufacturing contraction, and services are barely growing.

World and United States PMI Trend Lines

This world composite PMI trend line shows the world slowing.

This USA manufacturing PMI trend line shows the USA slowing and at the lowest rate of manufacturing growth since 2013

This USA services PMI shows the USA slowing.

These trend line charts are from Trading Economics.

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Disclaimer: "QVM Invest”, “QVM Research” are service marks of QVM Group LLC. QVM Group LLC is a registered investment advisor.

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