8 Monster Stock Market Predictions – The Week Of July 12 Edition

Hey everyone, so the good news is my surgery has been pushed back to Friday of this week, so we have all week to do afternoon write-ups.

S&P 500 EW (RSP)

The S&P 500 managed to eke out another record close this week, but the internals continue to look weak, and if not for a strong rotation into the biggest stocks, things might have looked a bit different. In fact, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) has been range-bound now since May 10. The RSI and the MACD have been trending lower, too; a bearish divergence.

This could be a sideways consolidation setting up for the next leg higher. But it is most certainly telling us that the market is not nearly as strong as it would appear to be. Recently, the RSP has been flirting with its 50 day-moving average, and a drop below support at $145.50 would be very negative and a confirmation of what appears to be a head-and-shoulders topping pattern.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Friday’s close on the S&P 500 makes it a potential signal of the end of this recent run-up. We can see in the chart below how wave 3 is now equal to wave 5. A retracement of this move higher off the May 12 lows would bring the index back to the 4,170 level.

Additionally, the S&P 500 is more than 10% away from its 200-day moving average. Historically speaking, that is a lot; while it doesn’t have to mean bad things are about to happen, it usually does. Of course, the two most recent periods we saw this happen were January of 2018 and February of 2020.

Yields

This week, we will get the PPI and CPI data, and while it’s easy for these numbers to come in hotter than expected, it is even easier for them to come in below expectations because expectations are so high. The 10-year is clearly struggling and telling us we should be concerned about growth rates in the future.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple has seen its RSI run-up above 80, and at least in the past when the RSI got this high, it marked a top in the stock. I don’t see any reason that this time would be different.

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Disclosure: Michael Kramer and The Clients Of Mott Capital Own Apple.

Disclosure: Mott ...

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