7 Monster Stock Market Predictions – The Week Of Feb. 8 Edition

VIX (VIX)

Stocks rose by more than 4% last week, recouping all of their previous losses. A giant volatility crush along with the VIX collapsing sent the S&P 500 sharply higher. Whether that can continue in the coming week is the question, because the VIX is now back 20, and it is going to need a break of around 20 to get the VIX moving lower.

The VIX hasn’t been below 20 since this time last year, and unless something changes with implied volatility levels across the market, it doesn’t seem likely that the VIX will fall below 20. If the VIX can break through 20 this week, then there could be an epic melt-up in the S&P 500. If it can’t, this week will likely lead to a lower reversal after a strong showing last week.

S&P 500 (SPY)

There is a rising wedge pattern in the S&P 500 that broke during the last week of January. The index rose back to 3,890 this past week, bringing the index back to the wedge’s bottom and retesting the breakdown. If the index fails to get beyond that trend line, it could signal a rocky week for stocks. There is also an unfilled gap down at 3,780.

With the VIX already at 20 and the S&P 500 back at resistance, this week may prove to be challenging, with a refill of the gap at 3,780; the scenario with the greatest odds.

Bank of America (BAC)

This past week, I noted that a rising interest rate environment should help lift the bank stocks. Bank of America is one of the potential winners, with a chance to rise back to $34.25.

Amazon (AMZN)

During the week, I noted that based on Amazon’s guidance, it appears their margins may come under some pressure next quarter. Meanwhile, Amazon appears to be facing some competition headwinds based on stalling operating income.

Is this to say that Amazon’s long-term prospects are in trouble? No. This is simply to say that the stock may struggle over the short-term until investors can get another look next quarter. It means the stock may remain range-bound between $3,065 and $3,400 for a bit longer.

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Disclosure: Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information ...

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