Economists Wrong On Durable Goods By An Amazing 3.9 Percentage Points

Economists expected a 1.5% rise in durable goods orders. Instead, they fell 2.0% on top of a negative revision.

In one of the biggest economic misses that I can recall, the Econoday durable goods consensus was overly optimistic by a whopping 3.9 percentage points after factoring in negative revisions.

Econoday Durable Goods Forecast

(Click on image to enlarge)

​Advance Report Details

Let's dive into the Census Advance Durable Goods Report for more details.

New Orders

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $5.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $242.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 0.2 percent October increase.
  • Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged.
  • Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $4.9 billion or 5.9 percent to $79.2 billion.

Shipments

  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $251.6 billion.
  • This followed a 0.1 percent October decrease. Fabricated metal products, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $34.1 billion.

Unfilled Orders

  • Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down two of the last three months, decreased $4.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,159.0 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged October increase.
  • Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $4.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $790.3 billion.

Inventories

  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $434.0 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October increase.
  • Transportation equipment, also up sixteen of the last seventeen months, drove the increase, $1.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $149.3 billion.
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