Yes And No Taper To Labor (And Inflation)

Our data, which represents all workers on a company’s payroll, has highlighted a downshift in the labor market recovery. We have seen a decline in new hires, following significant job growth from the first half of the year.

Lazy Americans too comfortable at home eating off Uncle Sam’s leftover nickels? Or, US businesses which have realized once those nickels fade into history the economy probably, even very likely doesn’t look anything the same as the “red hot” frenzy of ISM’s and retail sales (or PCE) from earlier this year when the government’s expensive helicopters flew freely.

The former a labor shortage quite like the imaginary one from 2018 which didn’t sway much back then, either. The latter, all-too-consistent with data, evidence, actual markets, etc., all but the mainstream economic narrative in that same way, too. Even the Establishment Survey and the Unemployment Rate find themselves in isolation once more, as there are any number of alternative employment data – a few shown here – which are looking at ostensibly the same thing, the labor market, and coming up with a grossly different picture of it.

Even if there had been a worker shortage, much of this data indicates the growing possibility of its past tense.

The most probable, and logical, interpretation is an economy materially (and predictably) slowing down more likely never having had the jobs situation tighten as much as had been said. If the FOMC holds to type, they will taper anyway on the advice of their true “love” while in the end, yet again, it won’t make one bit of difference.

Yes, taper; no tantrum. No labor shortage; yes, another summer slowdown.

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Disclosure: This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the author and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any ...

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