Will We See A Recession In First-Half 2021?

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As noted above, job losses were worst in the hospitality industry which saw an additional plunge of 498,000 jobs last month. Overall, hospitality is down 3.9 million jobs since January 2020, a 23.2% drop, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed.

In conclusion, it remains to be seen if we will experience a double-dip recession in the first half of 2021. As usual, it will depend on consumer spending which makes up almost 70% of Gross Domestic Product. With COVID infections and deaths at new highs, I am not optimistic consumers will open their pocketbooks in the months just ahead.

Yet if the current COVID surge does not get out of control, and we get a handle on the virus by mid-year as many forecasters expect, we may avoid a recession in the first half of this year. That remains to be seen, of course. I’ll keep you posted, as always.

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