Trade-Deal Doubts, Peak 'Put-Puke', & Extreme Greed Spark Stock Stumble
If "greed" is good...then "Extreme Greed" is better...
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And when you're 'extremely" greedy, you don't need hedges... hence the "put-puke" - which saw a very modest reversal today after days of collapse...
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Source: Bloomberg
And, thanks to Trump's comments and China Global Times' "lies" response, the market's pricing of a US-China trade deal slipped...
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Source: Bloomberg
Which sent US equity markets red after hope-filled overnight markets expected something great from Trump's speech, (but Larry Kudlow came on CNBC around 1500ET and jawboned stocks and then a well-timed headline on tax cuts lifted stocks a little more)...
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Source: Bloomberg
Big reversal in cyclical stocks today as hope for Trump's trade speech faded...
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Source: Bloomberg
Shorts were squeezed at the open once again BUT this time it was different as "most shorted" stocks were slammed lower...
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Source: Bloomberg
The recent series of fresh record highs for U.S. stocks is not being matched by a gauge of broader market strength, suggesting the gains should be treated with caution.
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As Bloomberg reports, The McClellan Oscillator, a measure of breadth momentum, is trading below zero -- an “unusually weak reading” with the S&P 500 Index at all-time highs, according to Sundial Capital Research Inc. founder Jason Goepfert. The divergence is a modest near-term negative for stocks, having preceded poor short-term returns in the past, he wrote in a note Monday.
And the SMART Money flow remains unimpressed...
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Source: Bloomberg
Having reopened after yesterday's Veterans Day closure, bonds were bid today...
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Source: Bloomberg
A massive 10-part $30 bn debt issue from Abbvie (to fund its purchase of Allergan) perhaps explains the surge in yields late last week as managers enacted rate-locks...
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Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, elsewhere in bond-land, it appears the idea of Legere taking over as CEO has done nothing for WeWork as its bonds collapse to new record lows (yield now at 14.5%)...
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Source: Bloomberg
And just in case you wondered, the cost of hedging against a Chinese currency devaluation or sovereign debt crisis is the lowest since 2008...
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Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the 6th day of the last 7...
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Source: Bloomberg
Offshore Yuan slipped lower today as trade deal odds fell...
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Source: Bloomberg
The Chilean Peso plummeted to a record low, over 800/USD for the first time...
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Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were somewhat volatile today but ended almost unch...
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Source: Bloomberg
Commodities were divergent today with crude and copper sliding as PMs rallied late on...
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Source: Bloomberg
Gold was hit multiple times but rebounded each time and ended marginally higher...
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Finally, it seems the upside momo from trade headlines has been used up as markets seemed more comfortable selling rips today on any hesitation...
$SPX algo’s when a new trade deal headline hits pic.twitter.com/xdBuDPvlUP
— MONETARY MAYHEM™ (@MONETARY_MAYHEM) November 12, 2019
And very quietly, the money is moving away from Elizabeth Warren...
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Source: Bloomberg
And while the odds are high that the House impeaches, they are just as high that the Senate won't and Trump will serve out his first term...
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Source: Bloomberg
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