E The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To

The second set of charts focuses on the relationship between trend GDP growth and the natural rate.

As illustrated in the second set of charts, the estimated US natural rate of interest has declined alongside the decline in the trend economic growth.

According to these estimates, the US natural rate was about 3% twenty years ago and recently dropped to a low of about 0.5%. The latest estimate has the natural rate back up to about 1%.

Across the whole OECD group of countries, the natural rate of interest is also estimated to be about 0.5%.

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Estimates Of The Relationship Between Slowing US GDP Growth And Declining Natural Rate Of Interest

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Estimates Of The Relationship Between Slowing Growth In Advanced Countries (the US, Canada, the Euro Area, and the UK) And The Declining Natural Rates Of Interest

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Gary Anderson 9 months ago Contributor's comment

Nice rstar charts prof. ECB is a total failure.

Arthur Donner 9 months ago Author's comment

thanks Gary

Good charts or tables should easily tell a story.

That's why I like using charts.