The Market Is Biding Time

The market is biding time waiting for the election outcome. Quite likely, it may be Biden's time.

A blue wave can be most beneficial to the market at this time due to broader fiscal spending and a consistent national pandemic strategy.

Contested election and a split change of control of White House and Senate are the two relatively worst possibilities.

Fiscal spending was needed, even without the pandemic, as the tax cut stimulus boosted growth for a brief period.

The clarity of election results next week is expected to lift a cloud of uncertainty, at least we all hope, and extinguish a significant political risk. That can likely set the stage for a market rebound, the extent of which depends on various scenarios.

However, if the election results end up in a contested state, a real possibility, and heads to the Supreme Court, that can cause significant volatility and perhaps take 5% to 10% off the market, based on the Bush-Gore precedent. But the risk of a contested election has continued to diminish as the polling gap has remained wide and steady. We will find out soon if the polls can be trusted.

Nonetheless, the market is recognizing the high-probability outcome.

It can be now Biden's time.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.