“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”

That’s the title of my presentation at the 2025 Minnesota Economic Association annual meeting, where I had the honor of speaking at the Leonid Hurwicz Lecture. It was a fantastic opportunity to share my thoughts and in responding to thoughtful questions, expand my views. The event took place at St. Catherine University yesterday.

Here’s one picture:

Figure 1: Inbound FDI, mn Ch.2017$ (blue, left scale), Trade Policy Uncertainty (teal, right scale). Trump administration periods shaded light orange. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: OECD, BEA, matteoiacoviello.com, NBER, and author’s calculations.

I discussed trade protectionism, policy uncertainty, restrictions on immigration, reduced foreign direct investment, and the threat to dollar dominance (slides here).

During the Economic Data Roundtable, Dr. Abigail Wozniak (Minneapolis Fed), Angelina Trâm Nguyễn (Minnesota DEED), and Dr. Aaron Sojourner (Upjohn Institute) spoke on issues relating to how the collection and development of labor market data critically supports policymaking, with emphasis on the indispensable nature of government data compilation.

Many thanks to Kristine West and Louis Johnston and the other officers of the MEA for the opportunity!

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