A slew of new GALLUP polls were released on Tuesday. I’ll summarize some of them for you today. You may be surprised at some of the findings. These polls were taken in January.

For starters, 60% of Americans oppose major new construction of walls along the US-Mexico border. As you will recall, funding for the border wall was the main issue that led to a record 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government.

The shutdown, which ended January 25, and the political battles that preceded it over the past several months, have had little apparent effect on public opinion about a wall, and opposition increased slightly since Gallup’s last poll in June of last year. I happen to be in favor of a wall because many US Border Agents in Texas tell us they need it, along with better technology and more manpower.

Americans Who Oppose Border Wall Continues to Grow

GALLUP: Please tell me whether you strongly favor, favor, oppose or strongly oppose significantly expanding the construction of walls along the U.S.-Mexico border?

My only question is whether those who oppose the wall hold that view solely because they are against anything Trump wants, or if they hold that view for substantive reasons. If it’s the former, then this poll is strongly skewed to the “Oppose” side, which may be misleading. We’ll probably never know.

GALLUP Polls Show Immigration Remains a Hot Topic

Gallup poll trends offer several signs that immigration has risen in prominence as a national issue in the past year. Take a look:

• 21% of respondents now name immigration as the country’s most important problem. That is the second-highest total for immigration in the 80-year history of the Gallup question, behind last July’s 22%.
• 78% of respondents in November identified immigration as an extremely or very important issue to them in the midterm elections, ranking it among the top three issues in importance to the public.

The issue of a wall was proposed as a way to slow illegal immigration long before Trump made it his signature 2016 campaign pledge. Gallup has asked about it using various question wordings for years, but all polls have consistently shown a majority opposed.

Gallup first asked about it in 1993, when 71% said they opposed “erecting a wall along the border with Mexico.” Opposition eased slightly in 1995, when 62% were against erecting a wall. In 2006, opposition to a wall was 56%. So, a majority of Americans have opposed it for a long time.

Public Supports Path to Citizenship, More Border Patrol Agents

Clear majorities of US adults in the latest Gallup polls support increased immigration and a path to citizenship for those already here, while rejecting President Trump’s border wall and deporting illegals who are already here.

• The vast majority of Americans (81%) favor allowing immigrants living illegally in the US “the chance to become US citizens, if they meet certain requirements over a period of time.” In 2016, the year Trump was elected president, 84% were in favor of a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally.
• Since Trump’s election, the proportion of Americans wanting to increase immigration levels has grown — from 21% in June 2016 to a record-high 30% now.
• A clear majority, 61% of respondents, oppose deporting illegal immigrants back to their home country. In 2016, before the election, 66% were in opposition.
• Though a majority of Americans reject major expansion of walls on the US-Mexico border, three-fourths of the public favors another method of increasing border security — the hiring of “significantly more” border patrol agents.

The question is, do any of the above statistics surprise you?  If they did, there’s a reason why.

The percentage of Americans who want immigration levels decreased has been higher than those wanting it increased in every one of the 33 polls Gallup has conducted on the issue since 1965. Yet that gap has closed substantially in recent years to near zero. Take a look below:

Support Grows For Increasing Immigration Levels

GALLUP: In your view should immigration be kept at its present level, increased or decreased?

Bottom Line: More Immigration is Coming, Wall is Dead

Absent a serious change in the trend, the level of immigration into the US will continue to grow. Americans have undergone a major change on this issue, when for decades more immigration was seen as a threat to US jobs. Liberals and the media have done their job of transforming public thinking on this issue.

Barring an unexpected change in the trend, I believe President Trump’s border wall is dead. Before long, I suspect, he will capitulate on this issue and tell the American people that he gave it his best shot, but it’s not going to happen. With 60% opposing the wall, it’s not a good fight to carry into the 2020 election. We’ll see.

Finally, I thought President Trump did a great job in his State of the Union address Tuesday night. Even liberal media outlets gave him high marks; the CBS News poll and CNN both had him at 76% approval for the speech.

I’ll leave it there for today.