Economist David Rosenberg assesses the odds of a recession are over 80%.

“History is on our side. There have been 13 Fed tightening cycles since 1950. Ten of these landed the economy in recession, and neither the consensus nor the Fed staff saw them coming when they actually started. So before knowing anything else, the fact that we have been in the midst of a Fed tightening phase sends recession odds north of 80%.”

A friend sent that quote and it rings true in this corner as noted in Powell Promises Patience: So What? It Doesn't Matter.