Recession Odds Soar To 70% In Two Years, According To JPMorgan

A lot can change in less than two months: back on October 18, when the initial market drop seemed like just another dip-buying opportunity, JPM predicted that the odds of a recession in 1 year were a modest 27.6%, rising to 60% if the forecast period is extended to two years.

Well not anymore, because according to JPM's latest "real-time quant monitor", the risk of a recession has since spiked to a no longer trivial 35%, the highest in series history (and up from 16% back in March)...

(Click on image to enlarge)

... while the probability that the next presidential recession will take place during a recession (i.e., recession odds in two years) has now surged to more than double that, or over 70%.

Meanwhile, some of JPM's other near-term forecasts include:

  • GDP growth nowcast drops to to 2.22% from 2.27%
  • The forecast of average payroll growth over the next 12 months fell to 124k from 146k
  • The forecast of core PCE inflation over the next 12 months was little changed at 1.92%

As a reminder, JPM calculates recession probabilities based on regression models, which track such indicators as prime-age male participation, consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product.

Separately, Bank of America is out with its own latest recession forecast, and when looking at blowing out credit spreads and a yield curve which "has flattened like a pancake with part of the curve already inverting (the 2yr-5yr)", notes that such moves are usually indicative of a weakening economy, prompting recession fears, and notes that its "recession models - which are a function of various market measures - show that the risk of a recession in 2019 is now between 20 and 37%"

To avoid scaring too many clients, BofA is clearly unhappy with its existing model, and in a Friday note writes that it is introducing a new big data recession probability model that accounts for a broader basket of indicators: the 3mo-10yr treasury spread, building permits, commercial & industrial (C&I) loans, S&P 500, real consumption, and corporate spreads. According to this model, the risk of a near-term recession is far lower, predicting a 6-mo ahead probability of only 9%.

1 2 3 4
View single page >> |

Disclosure: Copyright ©2009-2018 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD; All Rights Reserved. Zero Hedge is intended for Mature Audiences. Familiarize yourself with our legal and use policies every time ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.