Market Thoughts: Livin’ On A Prayer

Early each morning, I scan and synthesize market-moving news. I look at macro themes, currency moves and global economic indicators that support or challenge my thinking on the Big Picture and help me take the mood of the market. I like to assemble these data points and turn them into context for my clients. 

Market Thoughts

Oh, we’ve got to hold on, ready or not
You live for the fight when it’s all that you’ve got
Woah, we’re half way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer

– Bon Jovi

As we close the first half of 2019 today, it’s fun to reflect that we are ‘half way there”. Not just for the year but also it seems with the US-China Trade War. Color me skeptical, but this fight has been going on for over a year now, by some accounts, even longer. And I contend it will be “a thing” up until the 2020 Election if not later – so at least another year of the headline drama and disappointing growth. Sorry, but to think otherwise, I’m just livin’ on a prayer.

So when did this self-imposed US conflict officially begin? This battle that Trump took up to ‘level the playing field’? Would it surprise you to know that the China Briefing has kept a timeline?

Events leading up to the US-China trade war

Of course, this is just the first few entries by the Chinese newspaper (China Briefing); there is a long list you can check out, but what I found interesting was how they placed the first timestamped entry of a warring Trump long before he was even elected. Fast-forward from 2011 to 2017, and I would contend ‘first shots were fired” when Trump authorized “investigation” into Steel Tariffs.

US-China Trade War 358 Days In

A more official day for the trade conflict was the implementation of those tariffs on Chinese imports.

Day 1: July 6, 2018 – US implements first China-specific tariffs

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