ASIA:

India is likely to rank among the emerging economies worst affected by the Russia-Ukraine crisis as a surge in global prices of commodities is set to upend spending plans and derail its pandemic recovery, analysts say. If the conflict lasts, India, which imports close to 85% of its oil needs, is likely to see its fiscal, trade, and account deficits swelled by a surge in crude oil prices to their highest in more than a decade, which will also fuel inflation.  February’s budget was based on an average oil price of $75 to $80 a barrel for the fiscal year starting from April 1, but Brent briefly soared on Monday to nearly $140, its highest in over a decade.

DBS Bank says every increase of $10 a barrel in the price of oil lifts India’s consumer price index-based inflation by 20 to 25 basis points, widens the current account gap by 0.3% of GDP, and poses a downside risk of 15 basis points to growth.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 decreased 430.46 points or -1.71% to 24,790.95
• Shanghai decreased 79.33 points or -2.35% to 3,293.53
• Hang Seng decreased 291.76 points or -1.39% to 20.765.87
• ASX 200 decreased 58.30 points or -0.83% to 6,980.30
• Kospi decreased 28.91 points or -1.09% to 2,622.40
• SENSEX increased 581.34 points or 1.10% to 53,424.09
• Nifty50 increased 150.30 points or 0.95% to 16,013.45

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.0046 or -0.63% to 0.72747
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00183 or -0.27% to 0.68135
• USDJPY increased 0.377 or 0.33% to 115.726
• USDCNY increased 0.00105 or 0.02% to 6.32543

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 33.35 USD/t oz. or 1.67% to 2,031.46
• Silver increased 0.541 USD/t. oz or 2.11% to 26.200

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Adjusted Current Account decreased from 0.81T to 0.19T

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) increased from -0.4% to 0.9%

Overall wage income of employees (Jan) increased from -0.4% to 0.9%

Overtime Pay (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 5.2% to 4.4%

Bank Lending (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 0.5% to 0.4%

Current Account n.s.a. (Jan) decreased from -0.371T to -1.189T

Australia:

NAB Business Confidence (Feb) increased from 4 to 13

NAB Business Survey (Feb) increased from 2 to 9

Some economic news from today

Japan:

Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.4% to -0.5%

Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.9% to -1.0%

Leading Index decreased from 104.8 to 103.7

Economy Watchers Current Index (Feb) decreased from 37.9 to 37.7

EUROPE/EMEA:

London’s FTSE 100 edged higher on Tuesday, aided by strong gains in energy stocks as oil prices jumped after Britain and the United States announced Russian crude import bans, while insurer and asset manager M&G was the top index gainer on a share buyback program.

Britain will phase out Russian imports of oil and oil products by the end of 2022, business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said. Separately, the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, announced a ban on Russian oil imports. Britain’s business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said he was exploring options to end British imports of Russian gas which accounts for about 4% of supply in the country. Earlier, Shell became one of the first major Western oil companies to abandon Russia entirely, while the once unthinkable moves on Russian oil by the United States and Britain sent oil prices surging on fears of restricted supply and more disruption. Shares in British and European energy firms rose.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

• CAC 40 decreased 19.31 points or -0.32% to 5,962.96
• FTSE 100 increased 4.63 points or 0.07% to 6,964.11
• DAX 30 decreased 3.14 points or -0.02% to 12,831.51

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00459 or 0.42% to 1.09074
• GBPUSD decreased 0.0003 or -0.02% to 1.31075
• USDCHF increased 0.00346 or 0.37% to 0.92907

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) increased from 1.1% to 2.7%

Spain:

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) increased from 1.3% to 1.7%

Italy:

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.8% to -0.5%

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 9.8% to 8.4%

Euro Zone:

Employment Change (YoY) (Q4) increased from 2.1% to 2.2%

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 0.9% to 0.5%

Employment Overall (Q4) increased from 161,757.8K to 161,857.8K

GDP (YoY) (Q4) increased from 3.9% to 4.6%

GDP (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 2.2% to 0.3%

US/AMERICAS:

CIA director William Burns believes Putin misjudged his attack on Ukraine. “Instead of seizing Kyiv within the first two days of the campaign, which was what his plan was premised upon, after nearly two weeks, they still have not been able to fully encircle the city,” Burns said. Burn further stated that the harsh opposition will cause Russia to “double down” on their attacks.

After harsh scrutiny, McDonald’s announced that it is ceasing all operations in Russia. The US-based company said it will continue to pay the 62,000 Russians they employ at 850 locations around Russia. “At this juncture, it’s impossible to predict when we might be able to reopen our restaurants in Russia,” the company stated. Russia and Ukraine account for 9% of McDonald’s revenue and 3% of its operating income after opening its first location in the former USSR. Later in the day, Starbucks also announced that they were pulling out of Russia. Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson said that they would also provide support for their 2,000 now unemployed workers

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 184.74 points or -0.56% to 32,632.64
• S&P 500 declined 30.39 points or -0.72% to 4,170.7
• Nasdaq declined 35.41 points or -0.28% to 12,795.55
• Russell 2000 advanced 11.68 points or 0.6% to 1,963.01

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 72.37 points or -0.34% to 21,232.03
• TSX 60 declined 7.75 points or -0.6% to 1,285.27

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa declined 390.01 points or -0.35% to 111,203.45

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 4.44 USD/BBL or 3.72% to 123.8200
• Brent increased 5.08 USD/BBL or 4.12% to 128.2900
• Natural gas decreased 0.3 USD/MMBtu or -6.21% to 4.5330
• Gasoline increased 0.1201 USD/GAL or 3.36% to 3.6922
• Heating oil increased 0.5449 USD/GAL or 13.90% to 4.4664

The above data was collected around 14:59 EST on Tuesday

• Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (13.90%) and Palladium (5.94%), Bitumen (5.56%), Nickel (66.02%)
• Top commodity losers: Coal (-4.18%), Wheat (-5.39%), Natural Gas(-6.21%) and Oat(-8.55%)

The above data was collected around 15:05 EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.1630%(+2.3bp), US 2’s 1.63% (+0.073%), US 10’s 1.8715% (+9.47bps); US 30’s 2.24% (+0.056%), Bunds 0.133% (+14.6bp), France 0.570% (+9.3bp), Italy 1.5980% (+0.1bp), Turkey 24.91% (+41bp), Greece 2.3630% (-4.5bp), Portugal 0.930% (+4.3bp); Spain 1.059% (+4.9bp) and UK Gilts 1.444% (+13.8bp).