Market Talk - Friday, May, 5

By Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics

Friday, May 5, 2023 4:52 PM EDT

ASIA:

High prices are starting to put pressure on small and midsize businesses in Japan, forcing a record number of them into bankruptcy as the country lags behind the West in passing along the increased costs to customers. Fiscal 2022 saw 463 companies file for bankruptcy over rising prices or an inability to pass along costs, according to Teikoku Databank. The figure was 3.4 times the 136 cases of fiscal 2021. This March alone had 67 cases — a record high for a single month. Comparing the July-September quarter of 2020 with the October-December quarter of 2022, the pass-through rate in Japan was 20.3% — less than half of the 48.5% in the U.S. and the 58.1% in Europe.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

NIKKEI 225 closed
Shanghai decreased 15.96 points or -0.48% to 3,334.50
Hang Seng increased 100.58 points or 0.50% to 20,049.31
ASX 200 increased 26.90 points or 0.37% to 7,220.00
Kospi closed
SENSEX decreased 694.96 points or -1.13% to 61,054.29
Nifty50 decreased 186.80 points or -1.02% to 18,069.00

The major Asian currency markets had a green day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00627 or 0.94% to 0.67557
NZDUSD increased 0.00261 or 0.42% to 0.63041
USDJPY increased 0.407 or 0.30% to 134.677
USDCNY increased 0.00126 or 0.02% to 6.91626

Precious Metals:

Gold decreased 34.85 USD/t oz. or -1.70% to 2,016.26

Silver decreased 0.431 USD/t. oz or -1.65%% to 25.635

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Caixin Services PMI (Apr) decreased from 57.8 to 56.4

Australia:

Home Loans (MoM) increased from -1.2% to 6.5%

Some economic news from today:

India:

Bank Loan Growth increased from 15.7% to 15.9%

Deposit Growth remain the same at 10.2%

FX Reserves, USD increased from 584.25B to 588.78B

Hong Kong:

Foreign Reserves (USD) (Apr) decreased from 430.80B to 427.40B

EUROPE/EMEA:

The European economy avoided recession over the winter and picked up the pace slightly in the first quarter of 2023 despite Russia’s war in Ukraine and a significant increase in interest rates aimed at fighting inflation. Economic output in the European Union grew by 0.3% in the first three months of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, according to an initial estimate of gross domestic product released on Friday. Among the 20 countries that use the euro, output increased by 0.1%. Economic output in the European Union grew by 0.3% in the first three months of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, according to an initial estimate of gross domestic product released on Friday. Among the 20 countries that use the euro, output increased by 0.1%.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:

CAC 40 increased 92.16 points or 1.26% to 7,432.93
FTSE 100 increased 75.74 points, or 0.98% to 7,778.38
DAX 30 increased 226.78 points or 1.44% to 15,961.02

The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:

EURUSD increased 0.00075 or 0.07% to 1.10185
GBPUSD increased 0.00637 or 0.51% to 1.26357
USDCHF increased 0.00551 or 0.62% to 0.89111

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Apr) remain the same at 2.0%

Unemployment Rate s.a. (Apr) remain the same at 1.9%

CPI (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 0.2% to 0.0%

Germany:

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 4.5% to -10.7%

France:

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1) remain the same at 0.2%

Euro Zone:

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) decreased from -0.2% to -1.2%

UK:

Construction PMI (Apr) increased from 50.7 to 51.1

US/AMERICAS:

The US economy grew by 253,000 jobs in April, beating analyst expectations of 180,000 additional workers. Unemployment rate fell to a historically low 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.6%. The job growth was broad-based, with factories, retailers, and restaurants adding jobs. Labor force participation rate rose to 62.4%, and the broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those with part-time jobs also edged higher to 6.6%. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight rate by another 25 bps to the 5.00%-5.25% range on Wednesday and will be reviewing all incoming data to determine if a pause is appropriate.

US Market Closings: