E Market Briefing For Monday, March 25

In sum, the prediction of the February break included a trading rebound, but not investment-grade buying conditions and boy was that spot-on. At this point everyone sees how the secondary rebounds were ploys to get buyers interested, and as I suspected it wouldn't last long or get very far.

That takes us to 'Trap Door' risk. Trade protectionism matters. Any sign of pressure on 'earnings' resulting from this, matters to markets. All this is 'on top' of general concerns and anticipated (already achieved before this past week) breakdowns and culmination of the 'structured' rebound 'they' needed from the double-bottom (trading only) low back in February which I indicated would work for traders; but for investors (newly joined here) just for lightening-up selling ahead of the decline's next phase.   
 

Conclusion

Our indicated 'Bear Market' commenced with the projected 'crash of 2018' (first phase, as a process) back in late January (February breaks shuffled just for a few days before caving). It may be intermediate in quality and duration or it may be swift with an 'event', particularly if we get institutional capitulation from those who 'using leverage' held this up with nonsensical pie-in-the-sky valuation estimates. 

As a matter-of-fact, while thinking about it I wouldn't be surprised if we're going to get pretty good 'earnings' reported for the first quarter; but they'll not help stocks much; because guidance will be increasingly uncertain in this kind of erratic environment. Upheaval and uncertainly are not exactly inducements to buy stocks, until and unless the market finds a base. We are likely nowhere near that, as I'll explore in the main video.    

 

Weekend (final) MarketCast

3 pm (Friday intraday) MarketCast

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Comments

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Gene Inger 2 years ago Author's comment

Enjoying the 'crash'... we first warned of 'crash conditions' underlying the market back on Jan. 25 and 26; and again when I spoke at TraderExpo in New Your a month ago. Just so you know, we are offering a 'rebate' coincidentally because it's Easter / Passover week. It's $30 for a Daily Briefing and $100. for MarketCast subscriptions and won't be repeated anytime soon. We only do this 3 times a year for new members at www.ingerletter.com and in-addition you'll get the comments immediately not on a multi-day delayed basis (they are intended to be only excerpts here). Also I will be speaking at TraderExpo in Chicago in July; which will be well after the Crash has mostly run it's course...or as we'll outline along the way. Join us for the journey if you feel we've (in all humility) nailed this market; as we're not going to often permit full quotation of my thoughts in the future...Happy Holidays and please visit www.ingerletter.com to join. Gene