It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

And that can only mean big trouble down in the shadows.

This actually explains both ends of the eurodollar futures (and yield) curve; the front of it is being sold as the market continues to expect no effective aid from the central bank – any central bank – on the monetary front. Total impotence; inelasticity is being priced for potentially months.

The long end of the curve therefore trades ahead of what will be lower and lower 3-month LIBOR further and further out into the future. That can only mean a recovery that isn’t much like one; the unnecessary further damage being done by a monetary and financial system central bankers are criminally unsuited to solve is adding up more and more to bleak, Japan-like forward prospects.

More so than the last twelve years have been!

How happy is Janet Yellen right now? She’ll be completely forgotten, her sorry tenure erased being bookended by the two bozos, history left to argue over who was worse, Bernanke or Powell. In the end, it will be Powell because he at least had Bernanke’s mistakes from which to have learned a thing or two before GFC2 was ever made a reality.


Back last June, the curve had inverted by more than it had on August 9, 2007 – the very day GFC1 began. This market was warning the world that the global monetary situation had become so precarious, the system so frail, that it was in real danger of being pushed over the edge.

It didn’t matter that no one could have predicted the coronavirus outbreak and what governments would do in response to it; that’s not what the market was saying or focused on last year. What it might be didn’t matter. It was telling everyone that the system was in such poor shape, so incredibly fragile that any further substantially negative pressure could easily push it into a crisis.

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Disclosure: This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the author and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any ...

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