The beginning of 2020 was very harsh for the Iranian government. US airstrikes in Iraq saw the country's top general and second most powerful man Qasem Soleimani to be killed. It triggered massive outrage, with Iran threatening us with retaliatory attacks. The country mourned its national hero and every Iranian citizen vowed for revenge and destruction of the United States. Tensions broke out very rapidly, and countries were on the brink of all-out war. 

The events saw a peak of escalation which has not been seen since the 1979 hostage crisis. Of course, both countries despise each other but for nearly 40 years this was the closest to war. 

Iran kept its promise about the retaliatory attack and launched attacks in Iraq near us bases. Still, Donald Trump during the conference declared no US soldier was hurt, and he did not take any immediate action. In his speech, he noted that he would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. The USA abandoned the nuclear deal and Trump was always mentioning it was a useless deal.

After a month the situations look like to have died down, but it requires a little to pull the trigger which will lead to a massive chain of events that will end with devastating war. It will have a huge impact on different regions, but the Caucasus is the one to have grave security and political problems.

Impact on the Caucasus

Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia - all share a historical background with Iran. The countries share different political aspirations as well. Georgia is firmly pro European state, Azerbaijan is closely aligned with Turkey. However, it does not express any obvious connection towards Europe or Russia, and Armenia is aligned with Russia. The main concern for all countries in the case of the US-Iran war is security an politics.

Armenia is the country that has the closest relationship with Iran, regardless of religion. They are close partners with Iran having a free economic zone in Armenian town Meghri and is serving as a trade way for Iranian trade, but Armenia is the recipient of American support too. There are also many Iranian tourists visiting Armenia. These factors were determining when the Armenian side at some point offered the role of mediator and peace broker when the escalation between Iran and the US reached its maximum. 

The leader of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan sees that any form of war between Armenia and the united states will devastate his country severely and at no cost should it be allowed.

Georgia has some bond with Iran; however, it is less economically dependent on Iran. Total trade turnover between the two countries, $133 million. Both countries have mutual interests, and people from Iran are actively visiting Georgian sightseeings. Georgia has its diaspora in Iran which takes place from the earlier centuries.

Azerbaijan is less likely to suffer any economic implications from Iran, although it has a number of Azerbaijani people living in Iran. Those countries border each other, so the "spillover" effect in case of any escalation will seem vivid. 

Azerbaijan had a history with Iran when it was a battlefield for Iranian and Israeli spies. It also accused Iran of terrorist attacks on home soil. Azerbaijan strongly opposes Iran for its fundamentalist Islam and Iran, in turn, is against the cooperation with Israel. The disagreement resulted in arresting 22 Iranian spies in Azerbaijan in 2012. 

Conclusion

It seems very unlikely that Iran and the united states will go in an all-out war with each other, not to mention the nuclear war which will annihilate and devastate not only the Caucasus but the whole world as well. But in the case of conventional warfare, it is very much possible that the Caucasus could become the site for the military confrontation between the United States and Iran as they are very close to the latter. 

The countries will suffer from terrible consequences, and the only winner who will hugely benefit from any encounter near its borders will be Russia. Vladimir Putin is always looking for a chance to actively pressure its neighbors and make them vulnerable, so all countries should observe the situation cautiously.