How States/Empires Collapse In Four Easy Steps

The promises cannot be met, and so society decays into warring elites and competing constituencies.

There is a grand, majestic tragedy in the inevitable collapse of once-thriving states and empires: it all seemed so permanent at its peak, so godlike in its power, and then slowly but surely, too many grandiose, unrealistic promises were made to too many elites and constituencies, and then as growth decays to stagnation, the only way to maintain the status quo is to appear to meet all the promises by creating money out of thin air, i.e. debauching the currency.

This political expediency works most wonderfully for a time: people don't realize the silver content of their coinage is being cut to near-zero, or there's nothing holding up the value of their currency but trickery and vague allusions to past glory.

Trust in the state/empire's currency suddenly collapses in a phase shift: all seems well until the moment the avalanche sweeps it all away.

It's a simple progression: during the permanent-growth-is-our-birthright phase of self-reinforcing virtuous cycles, when everything is expanding rapidly--credit, resources, jobs, capital, profits, state tax revenues, etc.--promises are made to elites and constituencies that look easy to meet as the economy is projected to expand rapidly essentially forever.

But virtuous cycles decay to unvirtuous cycles of bureaucratic sclerosis and corruption, systemic friction, declining productivity and resource depletion, and the rise of parasitic elites who contribute nothing but skim plenty saps the surplus available for productive reinvestment.

Every elite under pressure to satisfy the demands of those who were over-promised in the good times reverts to the same two financial fixes: debt and currency debasement. First, the state borrows and borrows and borrows, all under the belief that "the government can't go broke because it issues its own money."

Any rationalization will do in the phase of stagnation, but the reality is it's all political expediency: lacking the resources to pay all the promises, the state borrows from the future to maintain the illusion of stability.

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Disclosures: None.

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