Historical Post Pandemic Recovery Trends

Conclusion

If the Fed only hikes when the 3-year average core PCE inflation rate gets above 2%, it might not hike for years to come. Under the normal perspective where the Fed looks at unemployment and inflation, hikes could easily be justified in late 2022. Spending soared following the 1919 pandemic. The same will happen later this year. High beta stocks probably won’t do as well in the next 12 months as they have done in the last 12 months. State and local taxes collected have fully recovered. Collection should get even stronger because hiring and spending will spike in the next few months.

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