Import/Export data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

Trump is woefully ignorant about largest US trade partners.

Here is a Video Clip of Trump’s Claim Regarding Canada.

Let’s now discuss the fact.

Total Trade (Imports and Exports)

• Mexico: 1.423 Trillion
• Canada: 762 Billion
• China: 583 Billion

US imports and Exports – Goods Only – China, Canada, Mexico, EU, Vietnam

(Click on image to enlarge)

Import/Export data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

In terms of US exports, Canada is #1. Canada buys more US goods than the entirety of the EU.

The US goods balance of trade with Vietnam is -124 Billion. Canada is is a mere -64 billion.

Yet, Trump has a 10 percent tariff on Vietnam and higher on Canada.

US Balance of Trade – Goods Only 10 Select Countries Plus EU

(Click on image to enlarge)

Trade Balance data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

As a nation, there are eight countries that have a higher trade deficit with the US than Canada.

Grok AI

Trump’s claim that the U.S. doesn’t do much business with Canada is misleading. In 2024, U.S.-Canada goods trade totaled $762.1 billion, with $349.4 billion in exports and $412.7 billion in imports, creating a $63.3 billion goods deficit.

However, a $31.7 billion services surplus in 2023 offsets this, showing a more balanced relationship. The trade supports millions of jobs, with $600 billion in goods crossing the border in the first three quarters of 2024.

Canada is the U.S.’s largest trading partner, contradicting the “not much business” claim. While some view the goods deficit as unfavorable, others see it as a normal part of economic integration.

Trump’s claim is not “misleading”. It’s a flat out lie or blatant economic stupidity.

Factoring in services, Canada barely has a surplus at all.

Ignoring oil, which the US needs, and factoring in services, the US has a big trade surplus with Canada.

Reciprocal Tariffs

Reader: “Tariffs are reciprocal. All Canada has to do is to lower the tariffs they charge the US to what they want the US to charge them.”

Me: USMCA IS reciprocal right now. In extremely minor instances where it isn’t, TRUMP negotiated the deal.

Please read over and over Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement

The above post contains over a dozen instances in which Trump bragged what a great deal.

It was such a great deal that Trump thanked Mexico and Canada. Notably USMCA is “Good for everybody – Farmers, Manufacturers, Energy, Unions – tremendous support. Importantly, we will finally end our Country’s worst Trade Deal, NAFTA!”

Good deal or not (and I think it was a very good deal for the US), the fact of the matter is Trump has no legitimate right to unilaterally break a deal ratified by the Senate 89-10.

Excluding Oil, the US Has a Trade Surplus with Canada Every Year Since 2008

Please note that Excluding Oil, the US Has a Trade Surplus with Canada Every Year Since 2008

Let’s do a fact check on Trump’s Canada claims.

On February 2, 2025 I commented on Trump’s claim “We Have All the Oil We Need”

By volume, we are reasonably close. But by grades of oil US refiners need, we aren’t. Here are the details.

It’s impossible to overstate the gross lie or total ignorance inherent in Trump’s preposterous claim about trade with Canada.

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