Someone asked me how my economic forecast would change if President Trump were to be impeached and removed from office. I think it’s highly doubtful that will happen, but it’s worth considering.

Before the economic outlook, let’s remember the challenge for the president’s opponents. Impeachment, technically, is a charge of misconduct voted by the House of Representatives. For removal from office, the Senate holds a trial under its own rules, presided over by the chief justice of the Supreme Court, with a two-thirds majority needed to remove the president from office. Unless the current hearings turn up very critical evidence, enough to convince 20 of the 53 Republican senators, the vote to remove President Trump from office will fail. That seems unlikely—now—but let’s imagine that it happens.

Vice President Michael Pence would become president, and he would likely seek election to the presidency in 2020. Prior to the inauguration of the winner of the 2020 election, President Pence would have some scope to impact the economy, but not enough time for huge change. Were he to be elected in 2020, then look for a traditional conservative agenda, with less growth of federal spending (in contrast to present policy) and a continuation of President Trump’s deregulation efforts.

A trade deal would likely be Mike Pence’s first move in the White House. In Congress, he consistently supported trade deals. He would probably listen to the three economists who recently advised Trump that a deal with China would stimulate the economy in the coming year, helping Republican election efforts. Those economists were right that resolution of the U.S.-China disagreements would provide an immediate boost to the economy by removing the substantial uncertainty that has cut business capital spending.

Pence has argued for a return to the gold standard and that the Fed should focus entirely on inflation, in contrast to its current dual mandate that requires it to also limit unemployment. Nonetheless, these do not seem likely to become a high priority in a Pence administration. Both proposals aim to limit inflation, but inflation is hardly a problem today. There is wisdom in attaching problems when they are small, but politicians tend to focus on current big problems rather than future problems. (Which is why small problems become big problems, of course.)

A president only has so much time in a day, so an economic analysis of a new administration must be based not only the president’s policy preferences, but on how the president will allocate time and energy. Mike Pence is a social conservative, opposed to abortion and same-sex marriage. Prior to the vice presidency, these issues seemed to be near the top of his priority list. It’s possible that as president, he would return his focus to these issues. He might, however, take LGBT issues as a lost cause, and incorporate his abortion views only in Supreme Court appointments. That would leave him time for cutting federal budgets and regulations. However, a significant effort on social issues would leave him little time and energy for economics. How would a President Pence choose? As a veteran politician, he might well look at which issues will help him win reelection in 2020 and 2024. (If he serves for less than two years this time around, he would be eligible for two more full terms.) Social issues are more likely an area he would take up after 2024 elections, in his final term in the White House. And it’s quite possible that as his constituency broadens from Indiana to the nation as a whole, he will ignore social issues.

My best guess of a Pence policy agenda is thus that he focuses on a trade deal in his first few months in office. He would continue Trump’s deregulation efforts, especially those that will get construction projects going quickly. Then he shows his chops as a fiscal conservative, but not too severely. He makes a show of trimming federal expenditures, but not enough to raise too much of a stink among middle-of-the-road voters.

With the economy doing well, and a presidential-style providing a welcome relief from the current incumbent, he likely wins election in 2020. I don’t claim to be a political forecaster, but correlations of past electoral results show that good gains in the economy in the three quarters leading up to the election correlate strongly with votes for the incumbent party.

If Mike Pence is elected president in 2020, his policy agenda will most likely included limiting federal expenditures, continued deregulation, with the possibility of a major effort to dial back changes in abortion rights and LGBT rights. Social policy change would have very small economic impacts, too small to measure, but would use up presidential attention that might otherwise be applied to economic policy.

A reduction of federal expenditures is negative in the short run according to most economic models, but for an economy near full employment, the effect should be trivial. Moving toward a path with a smaller federal deficit will induce more long-term optimism and investment, though the magnitude is likely to be small. Deregulation’s economic results will be positive, but with a long time lag and small magnitude relative to the usual volatility of the economy.

This analysis paints a rosy—or at least rosyish—picture of the economic outlook if President Trump is removed from office. This is not an endorsement of impeachment and removal from office, of course. Preservation of our constitutional order, in which removal from office occurs only when truly dastardly deeds are uncovered, is best for the long run health of the economy. I don’t know if the president’s misdeeds are low enough to warrant removal from office.