Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   

 

 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

 

Week of September 21

     

 

 

September 21

     

 

 

Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

1.18

1.18

 

 

 
       

 

 

September 22

     

 

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

12.0

18.0

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales - August

5.950M

5.860

6.000

 

 
       

 

 

September 23

     

 

 

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.3%

0.9

 

 

 
       

 

 

PMI Manufacturing - Flash

53.1

53.1

53.2

 

 

PMI Services Flash

54.7

55.0

54.7

 

 
       

 

 

September 24

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

850K

860

845

 

 

New Home Sales - August

860K

901

900

 

 

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

14

14

 

 

 
       

 

 

September 25

     

 

 

Durable Goods Sales - August

2.0%

11.4

1.5

 

 
       

 

 

Week of September 28

     

 

 

September 28

     

 

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

8.5

8.0

 

 

 
       

 

 

September 29

     

 

 

International Trade in Goods - August

-$83.3B

-79.3

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories - August (a)

0.0%

-0.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

     

 

 

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.2

 

 

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.0

 

 

 

Twenty City Y/Y

3.6

3.5

 

 

 
       

 

 

Consumer Confidence - September

90.0

84.8

 

 

 
       

 

 

September 30

     

 

 

ADP Employment Report - September

500K

428

 

 

 
       

 

 

GDP - Q2

-31.7%

-31.7

 

 

 

Chicago PMI - September

52.2

51.2

 

 

 

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

122.1

122.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

October 1

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

     

 

 
       

 

 

Personal Income - August

-1.5%

0.4

 

 

 

Personal Spending

1.0

1.9

 

 

 

PCE Price Index

0.4

0.3

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index

0.4

0.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

55.5

56.0

 

 

 

Construction Spending - August

0.7%

0.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

Auto Sales* - September

15.9M

15.2

 

 

 

Car Sales

3.6

3.5

 

 

 

Truck Sales

11.8

11.7

 

 

 
       

 

 

October 2

     

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

1000K

1371

 

 

 

Private

1150

1027

 

 

 

Manufacturing

40

29

 

 

 

Unemployment

8.3

8.4

 

 

 

Average Workweek

34.6HR

34.6

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4

 

 

 
       

 

 

Factory Orders - August

1.5%

6.4

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders

2.0

11.4

 

 

 

Nondurable Goods Orders

1.0

1.8

 

 

 
       

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

78.2

78.2

 

 

 
       

 

 
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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