Demographics, Birth Rate, And The Covid Baby Bust Are Quite Deflationary

Civilian Noninstitutional Population 2021-09

Civilian Noninstitutional Population

The Civilian Noninstitutional Population is defined as those age 16 and older not in an institution (e.g. prison, armed service, nursing homes) residing the the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.

Civilian Noninstitutional Population 2021-09A

Essentially, CNP is the working age population except that most people aged 16-22 are in high school or college, thus not working full time.

Birth Rate Per 1,000 Persons

Birth Rate Per 1,000 People 2019-04

16-Year Lag

The spikes and declines in the birth rate correlate to changes on the first chart with a 16-year lag.

The latest data for the above chart is as of April of 2019. In other words, birth rate data predates Covid.

The Pandemic Caused a Baby Bust, Not a Boom

Scientific American reports The Pandemic Caused a Baby Bust, Not a Boom

When the COVID pandemic led to widespread economic shutdowns and stay-at-home orders in the spring of 2020, many media outlets and pundits speculated this might lead to a baby boom. But it appears the opposite has happened: birth rates declined in many high-income countries amid the crisis, a new study shows.

Arnstein Aassve, a professor of social and political sciences at Bocconi University in Italy, and his colleagues looked at birth rates in 22 high-income countries, including the U.S., from 2016 through the beginning of 2021. They found that seven of these countries had statistically significant declines in birth rates in the final months of 2020 and first months of 2021, compared with the same period in previous years. Hungary, Italy, Spain and Portugal had some of the largest drops: reductions of 8.5, 9.1, 8.4 and 6.6 percent, respectively. The U.S. saw a decline of 3.8 percent, but this was not statistically significant—perhaps because the pandemic’s effects were more spread out in the country and because the study only had U.S. data through December 2020, Aassve says. The findings were published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.

Birth rates fluctuate seasonally within a year, and many of the countries in the study had experienced falling rates for years before the pandemic. But the declines that began nine months after the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency on January 30, 2020, were even more stark. “We are very confident that the effect for those countries is real,” Aassve says. “Even though they might have had a bit of a mild downward trend [before], we’re pretty sure about the fact that there was an impact of the pandemic.”

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