E Coronavirus And Trump's Clever Inadequacy

I visited the Grand Canyon a year and a half ago. By far the most visitors were Chinese when I was there. This is true at various shopping venues as well. Wealthier Chinese were addicted to US products. Now many can't come, groups are banned, and many Chinese may not remain loyal in the future. Yellowstone Park is bracing for at least a 30 percent drop in visitors, Chinese visitors.

When a president plays fast and loose with supply and demand, with debt, with brand loyalty, he is only shooting his own citizens in their pocketbooks.

US Banks and China

One critical area of financial weakness could be American banks. While China is a creditor nation to the United State, owning a large portion of our treasury bonds, it as a nation borrows from US banks. US banks may be very vulnerable if their loans to China go bad.

China borrows from the world bank at about 1.3 billion dollars per year. It has borrowed billions in order to take advantage of world bank expertise. Steve Mnuchin argued against the loans, saying China loaned billions to poor nations. Oh, bad China. No, Mnuchin looks like Scrooge. But the world bank could be at risk in case of a default by China in this crisis period.

And in America, borrowers are using up for 55 percent of their income to by a house as they use alternate lenders. They may be a few paychecks from default. Can we dare imagine if these folks are walled off from work?

Banks appear to be quite vulnerable if the virus hits the USA hard. We hope for a better outlook, but there is no guarantee.

What does the Future Hold

We all hope that the virus passes without all the worst-case scenarios I have listed above. But it may require a militancy that we are seeing in China in order to confront the virus effectively. We may see stocks crumble, and small investors close to retirement may want to at least take out their initial investments. Predicting where stocks will go at this time is impossible.

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Disclosure: I have no financial interest in any companies or industries mentioned. I am not an investment counselor nor am I an attorney so my views are not to be considered investment ...

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Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 10: Counties with the most cases should be locked down longer. Trump wants to give people money. Should have been helicopter money from the Fed, but from the government the rates are low. And it may not be enough money for desperate families.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 9: Trump has banned flights from Europe, but with under 10000 test kits, Wall Street sees the possibility of the virus going out of control.

Kurt Benson 3 months ago Member's comment

"Possibility?" More like a foregone conclusion!

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

I was being conservative. I am encouraged that big gatherings are being shut down. There needs to be more of that.

Adam Reynolds 3 months ago Member's comment

Agreed. Originally I thought we were overreacting. But the more I read about this pandemic, the more I realize that the US is woefully unprepared. More needs to be done.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

Update 8: Donald Trump's continued clever behavior manifests in people applying for legal alien status being denied medical if they want permanent residency. This will likely guarantee the faster spread of the virus.

Alexandra Gray 4 months ago Member's comment

What I find nutty is that some people are actually blaming Trump for the virus.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

That is nutty. I personally don't know anyone who is blaming Trump. Some are blaming Trump for his slow response and for not filling many empty CDC positions and for saying that people are overreacting just to remove him from office. Truth is, we do not know how the virus will impact the USA. It may be mild or terrible. We just don't know.

Ayelet Wolf 4 months ago Member's comment

I did read online that several were trying to blame Trump. The problem in a situation like this is that it's tough to balance harsh measures which can force hardship on one's citizens, and damage the economy, and keeping people safe. But I fear that all this is now too little too late.

Once the cat is out of the bag, it's hard to get it back in. This virus will not die out in the US (or any place else) any time soon.

Jack S. Chen 4 months ago Member's comment

China has taken some very aggressive actions to make inroads against the virus. People are now recovering faster there than new people are being infected. But the country suffered greatly, both economically and in terms of the human toll. Will America go to the same lengths?

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

That is the big question Jack. I think Trump is wrong in saying it is safe to fly. It appears that Wall Street is voting exactly that way today. Trump is not going for massive quarantine, hoping to help stocks. But that decision could hurt stocks if the virus continues to spread.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

Update 7: First death recorded in the USA. In Germany, out of 50 to 70 cases, almost half occurred today.

Arthur Donner 4 months ago Contributor's comment

Great series of insights Gary.

All the best,

Arthur

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

Thanks prof. We hope it hits the US in a mild way, but if it doesn't, big events should be shut down at some point.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

Update 6: Shopping malls, large gatherings, even Trump rallies could be hit hard if the Coronavirus spreads within our borders. There is a rumor among Trump followers that the virus is the result of a conspiracy to take Trump down. Putting oneself in the line of fire, medically speaking, to take down a president is absurd. No one could want this virus to take over the USA. If Trump would have taken charge from the beginning, months ago, instead of keeping silent, he could have avoided a lot of grief.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

Update 5: China factories are up to 60 to 70 percent production. New cases are slowing in China. That is good news. Cases are increasing all over the world. Some governments are not ready. Some are. And some we aren't sure about.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

Update 4: The Trump administration has warned Dr Anthony Fauci to no longer speak about the Coronavirus without government clearance. This is desperation and damage control, shutting up scientist. Trump is showing severe incompetence with this ill timed censorship.

Norman Mogil 4 months ago Contributor's comment

Your point about the scale in China overwhelms that of the United States is so important. The Trump administration does not appreciate just how powerful the middle class is in China and how much this virus will hurt Chinese purchases from United States for both goods and services.

Gary Anderson 4 months ago Author's comment

I agree prof.