Image from Tweet below

Leading the Way Towards More Inflation

CA continues to lead the way:

“Experts said the new California rule, in both its stringency and reach, could stand alongside the Washington law as one of the world’s most important climate change policies.” https://t.co/l19OOcsLgF

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) August 24, 2022

New Mandates and Fines

• All new cars sold in the state by 2035 be free of greenhouse gas emissions includingcarbon dioxide. 
• 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold by 2026 produce zero emissions
• 68 percent of new passenger vehicles sold by 2030 produce zero emissions
• Liane Randolph, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board said California would fine automakers up to $20,000 for every car that falls short of production targets. 
• At least 12 other states are already in line to adopt California’s zero-emissions vehicle mandate.

EPA Waiver Required 

• California will now send its final rule to the Environmental Protection Agency to request the waiver, which the Biden administration has signaled that it is likely to grant. 
• California must first get approval from the E.P.A. for its own rules before other states can enforce similar restrictions.
• President Trump had fought California’s authority under the Clean Air Act to set its own rules regulating automobile pollution, and there remains the possibility that a future president might fight full implementation of the new rules. In addition, a group of attorneys general from Republican states have filed a lawsuit challenging California’s ability to set its own pollution rules.

The above details from the NYT article. 

Will People Postpone Car Buying?

I have no idea if the Supreme court will consider a challenge or how they will rule if they do. 

But if you are considering buying a car in 2024-2028 and there are not enough chargers for your driving habits and needs, the logical thing to do is postpone a decision to buy any vehicle.

After 2030, it would be crazy to buy a gasoline-powered vehicle. Of course, that is the idea.

Questions Abound

• Will the production of lithium, cobalt, manganese, and nickel be sufficient to make all the batteries? At what price? 
• Can the electrical grid take the strain?
• Will there be enough charging stations? 
• Who will pay for all the charging stations? 

Those are good questions and no one has the answers. But I do have the answer to one driving question.

Q: Will this do much of anything for the environment by 2035?
A: No, and possibly not 2050 either.

Annual CO₂ Emissions 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Chart from OurWorldInData 

Unless China, India, and emerging markets reduce emissions there will be no global progress.

Importantly, electric cars are not emission free and will not be emission free until electrical production is emission free. The Greens will not allow nuclear, and Europe is headed backward, more dependent on coal.

China is still making coal-powered electrical plants. And what about mining costs? 

A Date But No Plan

We have a date, 2035, and interim dates as early as 2026. But we have no credible plan to get there on metals, chargers, or the electrical grid.

This is one hell of a let's do it and see what happens mandate!

I can guarantee one thing, it will add to inflation, and likely in far more ways than we now understand. 

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