A Golden Bridge For Gaza

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Israel’s repeated wars against Hezbollah and Hamas have had two simple goals: constraint and deterrence. Israel wants to constraint their ability to make war and deter them from doing so in the future. The common term for this is “mowing the grass.”

It is a horrible term, reflecting the hopelessness of resolving anything.

Hamas has goals of their own. The shortest-term goal is to remain accepted as the leaders of the Palestinian people by demonstrating their dedication to resistance. Their longer-term goal is to work away at Israel’s territorial peace until they and their allies are in a position – through military might or public relations – to remove Israel entirely. The creation of a Palestinian state would emplace Hamas rockets within 20 miles of every Israeli population center but Eilat. Even Iron Dome could not resist that. It would be a major coup in their policy of ethnic cleansing. This policy pre-dates Hamas. 99% of Jews were ethnically cleaned from Muslim-governed lands in the years following 1948. Hamas simply wants to finish the job.

Israel recognizes they can’t defeat Hamas. After all, they are widely supported by their civilian population. Removing the Hamas government and occupying Gaza once again would only lead to an endless guerrilla war. And Hamas recognizes that they must continue to fight, periodically – even if their goals seems hopelessly out of reach today. They believe, eventually, that they will win.

Historically, Hamas is right. Muslims pushed out the Crusaders. Muslims pushed out the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Muslims forced the French out of Algeria. Muslims even pushed out the Mongols, after the massacre of almost all Muslims in Baghdad in 1258. Israel, in the long term, can’t be that different. Right?

I know of only three other Muslim-governed lands from which Muslim rulers were successfully replaced by non-Muslim rulers. These lands include Spain, India and parts of Western China.

Spain carried out a total ethnic cleansing of all non-Christians (Jews included). China appears to be following in Spanish footsteps, with Communist Party ideology replacing Christianity as the orthodox religion of the conquerors.

India remains the other example. Like Israel it has a significant Muslim population (somewhat reduced by a massive population transfer at the founding of the state in 1948). Like Israel it has internal sectarian conflicts with a Muslim population and external wars with a Muslim country (Pakistan). And, like Israel, it has resolved next to nothing.

By my reckoning, the Indian or Israeli festering wound of sectarian conflict is morally preferable to the one-time ethnic cleansing of the Spanish or Chinese examples.

“Mowing the grass” is preferable to paving over it.

But what if there was another path?

Sun Tzu, writing about conflicts between ethnically related kingdoms thousands of years ago, laid out many famous keys to conflict. One was to build your enemy a golden bridge, offering them a way out so they never fought like they were trapped. People in Gaza feel trapped – whether by Israel or Hamas. Another was to lure the enemy population away from their dedication to conflict. This is the basis of the modern COIN warfare practiced by the US in the latter stages of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

For all the problems of the past week, Israel has had far fewer problems with its Arab citizens than it has had with the Palestinian population not under its control. Put another way: Gaza has been far more difficult to deal with than Lod. One of the key reasons for this difference is that people in Gaza have no connection to Israel. The lines in the sand are total – there are Palestinians and then there are Jews. There is nothing in between.

I’ve always supported fracturing those lines. In the past, I’ve floated the idea of making peace with a single Palestinian city – recognizing passports, opening trade, providing security support and so on. This is possible because “Palestine” is not a single entity. Palestine was never a country and until recently there has never been a Palestinian Arab national identity (there was a Palestinian Jewish national identity before 1948). Because of this, allegiances to local power structures still remain. Thus, the population in Hebron could be quite distinct from that of Bethlehem or Jenin. The goal of this program would have been an eventual confederation of peaceful Palestinian cantons, and the isolation of hard-core Palestinian rejectionists.

In the current atmosphere it can be hard to imagine a single Palestinian city accepting this concept. The problem is not that an individual city would not be attracted by such an opportunity, it is that that city would face terribly violence from other Palestinian groups dead-set against any further fracturing of sectarian lines. The UAE made peace with Israel, Egypt is officially warming up, Morocco has broken with Arab lines, Sudan recognizes Israel, the Israeli-Islamist Ra’am party is willing to work with Israeli nationalists – and so no Palestinian city can be allowed to do the same.

Peace has to stop somewhere.

Strangely, this sort of city-based approach was more likely to work prior to the Abraham Accords.

What about stepping back from the ‘city’ level though?

When Israel was treating wounded Syrians, the world discovered that Syrians were stunned by Israel. They’d been taught Jews were some sort of monster people. They were surprised to discover that Israelis were a people willing to help even their enemies. They were further surprised to learn that Arabs in Israel held prominent jobs, including as the doctors who saved their lives.

Those who recall the interviews of those patients will also remember that their faces were blurred. They didn’t want to be endangered when they returned to Syria; and they didn’t want their families to be endangered either. A bridge to peace was built, and then partially burned upon their repatriation.


In my last editorial, I had a throw-away line about enabling Gazan families to acquire temporary residency with Arab Israeli families. But why not learn from the Syrian experience and make that into a major program? Slowly, at first, Israel could allow Gazan families to escape. All those families would need is a background check by Israeli authorities and the sponsorship of an Israeli family (Arab or otherwise) who would bear partial responsibility for any terrorist activity. They would then be issued Israeli work and temporary residency permits.

These families could form the basis of a major change. Instead of seeing Jews as some sort of monster people, they could see a realistic picture of who Israelis and Jews are. Over 40% of Israelis are descended from refugees expelled from Arab lands. There is more in common than some might imagine. These families could also see what Israelis have built. The concept of Israel as some temporary, evil and alien aberration would be largely erased.

As a major additional benefit, these families could shift from depending on international aid to being able to work and earn an income of their own. Nothing reduces radical activity like the opportunity for fulfilling work. This opportunity, due to Hamas’ policies, is almost entirely lacking in Gaza.

Some of these people may seek to carry out terror attacks. But punishment would be severe (including expulsion back to Gaza for entire families or even sponsors). It could also lead to termination of the entire program. Social pressure to not commit these attacks would be substantial – and social pressure is critical in a socially integrated society like Israel’s or Gaza’s. Indeed, I believe that while some might seek to attack, many others would seek some form of co-existence. We’ve seen it even with the riots. The morning after nighttime mobs in cities like Lod there have been daytime cleanups in which Arabs and Jews join together to pick up the pieces. Arabs have been distributing flowers to Jewish motorists in Haifa.

There is still a significant population, on both sides, dedicated to making something work.

That population could be extended to include Palestinians. Put another way, Gazan Palestinians could be more like Arab Israelis – instead of the other way around.

Critically, from Israel’s perspective, these people would remain Palestinian citizens. The international community already considers Israel responsible for Gaza so little would be lost by having Gazans under Israeli governance. Because these people would not be Israeli citizens, there would be no political threat here. On the contrary, Israel would actively facilitate these families’ participation in what exists of Palestinian democracy. When there are elections (they’ve been suspended for 15 years now) the competition between authoritarian parties more or less dedicated to Israel’s destruction would be leavened by a third and more productive perspective.

This approach would represent both the Golden Bridge and the luring of an enemy population. The US, of course, tried COIN in both Afghanistan and Iraq. This method of warfare worked well in Iraq – until the US withdrew. The US failure was founded on a critical reality. It is the same truth that emboldened Islamic resistance in French Algeria, Mongol Baghdad and Crusader Israel: Iraq and Afghanistan were never American territory.

This limitation does not apply to us. Israel is the homeland of the Jews.

Like Hindu Indians, the Jews of Israel are not going anywhere.

We Israelis face a choice. Do we choose Spanish or Chinese-style ethnic cleansing? Do we choose a horribly festering open wound of conflict? Or do we try to fracture the sectarian lines of conflict?

I believe the third choice is a viable one.

I believe that ropes lashing people to war can be overwhelmed by threads connecting them to their erstwhile enemies.

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Comments

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Bitcoin Bandit 2 years ago Member's comment

What's your take on the Afghanistan situation?

Texan Hunter 2 years ago Member's comment

I realize it sounds harsh, but wouldn't everyone be better off if Israel just wiped Hamas out? Yes, many of their soldiers would die in he short-term. And yes, thousands of Palestinian civilians would probably die. But as the violence drags on, likely many more than this will be killed in the future. And the Palestinians will never have freedom, peace and prosperity until they are free of Hamas.

Joseph Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

Freeing them from Hamas wouldn't deliver that either.

Terrence Howard 2 years ago Member's comment

Would you agree on this assessment of the situation with Hamas?

talkmarkets.com/.../defeating-hamas-takes-more-than-bombs

IB Trading 2 years ago Member's comment

Thanks for the link. Lots of interesting articles lately.

Leslie Miriam 2 years ago Member's comment

Congratulations on your cease fire. I assume that's a good thing?

Adam Reynolds 2 years ago Member's comment

It is hard to make peace with a terrorist organization dedicated to the extermination of Israel and the Jewish people. It's like that old joke where Hamas and Israel meet to negotiate peace and Hamas said their demands are "death to all Jews" and the Americans say to Israel - can't you at least try to meet them in the middle?"

Joseph Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

I'm not suggesting making peace with Hamas. But Gazan population is made up of clans, each of which have a very different relationship to Hamas. As much as we like to imagine mass groups of people as perfectly unified blocks, once you scratch the surface a different and more complex reality tends to emerge.

Texan Hunter 2 years ago Member's comment

I thought Israel built a wall to keep terrorists and suicide bombers out. Now you want to invite Gazans in? How can you be sure the person you are letting in your front door, isn't there to hurt you? Either with an attack or to radicalize Israeli Arabs already in Israel?

Joseph Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

You can't be sure. But there are 2 million people in Gaza - you'll only allow a relatively small number in. And Israel has data on many of these people. They know the relationships, the families, the structure of the terror organizations. I would venture Israel can have a very good idea of risk levels of families before you let anybody in. And, again, collaborators have already been let in - although AFAIK their treatment once here hasn't been awesome.

Ayelet Wolf 2 years ago Member's comment

It's a nice thought to try to win the hearts and minds of the Gazan people. But they've been indoctrinated to hate since infancy. It would be an uphill battle. Plus, even if you succeeded, Hamas is a bloodthirsty, ruthless regime that has no qualms about killing their own people. They would not hesitate to torture and murder any Gazan whom you managed to turn against them. In fact they would probably murder anyone who agreed to even enter Israel, as an Israeli collaborator. How would you get around this problems?

Joseph Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

They apply via an app and go to Egypt - a perfectly normal thing to do - from whence they can be brought over.

This model isn't unheard of either. The West brought over refusniks and collaborators from the Soviet Union. It was hard and thus quite limited, but there were pathways. They tended to go through third-party countries. These people ended up being great allies in the combat with the evil empire.

Some collaborators already brought over (like the Green Prince) fall into the same bucket.

Susan Miller 2 years ago Member's comment

It is a great idea, but how would you possibly get Hamas to agree to this? It would be a dramatic step towards normalization. And doesn't Hamas consider anyone who even visits Israel to be a traitor, punishable by death?

Joseph Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

Hamas would never agree, you'd do it unilaterally.

Danny Straus 2 years ago Member's comment

"Put another way, Gazan Palestinians could be more like Arab Israeli..." you mean the very people who are rioting all across Israel, burning down synagogues, lynching Jews, dragging people from their cars and beating them, throwing molotov cocktails and firebombs at homes? Sound like you are damned if you do, damned if you don't. All you'd do is bring in more people that hate you and want you dead.

Sure, some my volunteer to help clean up after, but when the leader of the the most moderate of Israeli Arab parties - Ra'am, tried to show his solidarity by visiting the mayor of Lod and a razed synagogue, his own party told him to resign. Seems like the moderates are in the minority.

Joseph Cox 2 years ago Contributor's comment

The moderates are always in the minority (at least in terms of volume) in the midst of this sort of violence. Roll back a month and the situation was quite different. Roll forward and it could be much worse or somewhat better.

I've had moderate Jewish friends of mine question whether any Arabs were interested in living in peace. This is something they never would have thought a month ago - they work with Arabs and interact on a regular basis. I'm sure there are Arabs in exactly the same boat. The extremism of radicals forces people into their corners and it is very hard to pull them back out.

What happens if you fail to do so, though?

We don't need to look at Israel to see the answer to this question.

The answer is horrifying.