Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 20 And 27

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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.      
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of September 20      
September 20      
NAHB Index 76 75 74
       
September 21      
Housing Starts - August 1.610M 1.534 1.560
Building Permits 1.670 1.635 1.600
       
Current Account - Q2 -$190.0B -195.7 -191.2
       
September 22      
Existing Home Sales - August 5.780M 5.990 5.880
FMOC 0.125% 0.125 0.25
       
September 23      
Initial Unemployment Claims 325K 332 320
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - August 0.5 0.5  
       
PMI Manufacturing - Flash 60.8 61.1 61.5
PMI Services Flash 54.8 55.1 55.0
       
Leading Indicators  0.8% 0.9 0.7
       
September 24      
New Home Sales - August 725K 708 713
       
Week of September 27      
September 27      
Durable Goods Sales - August 0.3% -0.1  
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 11.0 9.0  
       
September 28      
International Trade in Goods - August -$85.0B -86.4  
Wholesale Inventories - August (a) 1.0% 0.6  
       
S&P Case/Shiller Index - July      
Twenty City M/M 1.8% 2.0  
Twenty City M/M - SA 1.8 1.8  
Twenty City Y/Y 20.2 19.1  
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA      
       
FHFA Home Price Index - July 1.6% 1.6  
Consumer Confidence - September 116.0 113.8  
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 11.0 9.0  
       
September 29      
Pending Home Sale Index - Aug 111.7 110.7  
       
September 30      
Initial Unemployment Claims      
       
GDP - Q2 6.8% 6.6  
Chicago PMI - September 65.3 66.8  
       
October 1      
Personal Income - August 0.2% 1.1  
Personal Spending 0.3 0.3  
       
ISM (Mfg) - Sept 59.8 59.9  
Construction Spending - August 0.3% 0.3  
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)   71.0  
       
Auto Sales - September 13.2M 13.1  
Car Sales 2.9 3.1  
Truck Sales 10.3 10.0  

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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