Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept 30 And Oct 7
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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of September 30 |
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September 30 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
2.7 |
2.7 |
1.0 |
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Chicago PMI - September |
50.6 |
50.4 |
50.4 |
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October 1 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
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ISM (Mfg) - Sept |
50.6 |
49.1 |
50.0 |
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Construction Spending - August |
0.4% |
0.1 |
0.3 |
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October 2 |
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ADP Employment Report - September |
140K |
195 |
152 |
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Auto Sales - September |
17.1M |
17.0 |
17.0 |
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Car Sales |
4.7 |
4.6 |
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Truck Sales |
12.4 |
12.3 |
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October 3 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
215K |
213 |
215 |
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PMI Services Index |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
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ISM Services - September |
56.0 |
56.4 |
55.4 |
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October 4 |
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International Trade - August |
-$54.4B |
-54.0 |
-54.5 |
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Factory Orders - August |
0,2% |
1.4 |
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Durable Goods Orders |
0.2 |
2.0 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.3 |
0.8 |
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October 5 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - September |
140K |
130 |
145 |
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Private |
130 |
96 |
135 |
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Core Private* |
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Manufacturing |
4 |
3 |
3 |
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Unemployment |
3.7% |
3.7 |
3.7 |
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Average Workweek |
34.4HR |
34.4 |
34.4 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.4 |
0.3 |
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*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
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Week of October 7 |
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October 7 |
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Consumer Credit - August |
$14.0B |
23.5 |
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October 8 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - September |
102.5 |
103.1 |
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Producer Price Index - September |
0.1% |
0.1 |
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PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services) |
0.2 |
0.4 |
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October 9 |
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JOLTS - August |
5.100M |
5.211 |
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Wholesale Inventories - August |
0.4% |
0.4 |
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October 10 |
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Consumer Price Index - September |
0.1% |
0.1 |
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Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Treasury Budget - September |
$106.0B |
-200.3 |
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October 11 |
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Export Prices - September |
0.0% |
-0.6 |
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Import Prices |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
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Import Prices, ex-Energy |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p) |
93.2 |
93.2 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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