Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 24 And June 1

 
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of May 24      
May 24      
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April 1.00 1.71  
       
May 25      
S&P Case/Shiller Index - March      
Twenty City M/M 0.6% 1.2  
Twenty City M/M - SA 1.4 1.2 1.3
Twenty City Y/Y 12.8% 11.9 12.3
       
FHFA Housing Price Index - March 1.0% 0.9  
Consumer Confidence 118.0 121.7 119.0
New Home Sales - April 975K 1021K 975
Richmond Fed Index 19 17  
       
May 27      
Initial Unemployment Claims 425K 444 425
Durable Goods Sales - April 1.0% 0.8 0.7
       
GDP - Q1(p) 6.6% 6.4 6.5
       
Pending Home Sale Index - April 113.4 111.3 114.6
       
May 28      
International Trade in Goods - April -$93.5 -90.6  
Wholesale Inventories (a) - April 1.2% 1.3  
       
Personal Income - April -14.0% 21.1 -14.8
Personal Spending 0.8 4.2 0.5
       
Chicago PMI - May 70.0 72.1 69.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r) 82.8 82.8 82.8
       
Week of June 1      
June1      
PMI Manufacturing Index - May 61.5 61.5 61.5
ISM (Mfg) - May 61.5 60.7 60.8
Construction Spending - April 1.0 0.2 1.0
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 35.0 37.3  
       
June 2      
ADP Employment Report 680K 742 545
       
Auto Sales* - May      
Car Sales 17.9K 18.5  
Truck Sales 3.9 4.1  
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence 14,0 14.4  
       
June 3      
Productivity - Q1 (r) 5.5% 5.4 5.5
Unit Labor Costs -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
       
PMI Services Index 70.1 70.1  
ISM Services - May 63.5 62.7 63.2
       
June 4      
Nonfarm Payrolls - May 750K 266 621
Private 728 218 600
Manufacturing 80 -18  
Unemployment 6.0% 6.1 5.9
Average Workweek 34.9HR 35.0 35.0
Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.7 0.1
       
Factory Orders - April 1.3% 1.1  
Durable Goods Orders  1.0 0.8  
Nondurable Goods Orders  1.6 1.5  
       

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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