Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 24 And June 1
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
Week of May 24 | |||
May 24 | |||
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April | 1.00 | 1.71 | |
May 25 | |||
S&P Case/Shiller Index - March | |||
Twenty City M/M | 0.6% | 1.2 | |
Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Twenty City Y/Y | 12.8% | 11.9 | 12.3 |
FHFA Housing Price Index - March | 1.0% | 0.9 | |
Consumer Confidence | 118.0 | 121.7 | 119.0 |
New Home Sales - April | 975K | 1021K | 975 |
Richmond Fed Index | 19 | 17 | |
May 27 | |||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 425K | 444 | 425 |
Durable Goods Sales - April | 1.0% | 0.8 | 0.7 |
GDP - Q1(p) | 6.6% | 6.4 | 6.5 |
Pending Home Sale Index - April | 113.4 | 111.3 | 114.6 |
May 28 | |||
International Trade in Goods - April | -$93.5 | -90.6 | |
Wholesale Inventories (a) - April | 1.2% | 1.3 | |
Personal Income - April | -14.0% | 21.1 | -14.8 |
Personal Spending | 0.8 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
Chicago PMI - May | 70.0 | 72.1 | 69.5 |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r) | 82.8 | 82.8 | 82.8 |
Week of June 1 | |||
June1 | |||
PMI Manufacturing Index - May | 61.5 | 61.5 | 61.5 |
ISM (Mfg) - May | 61.5 | 60.7 | 60.8 |
Construction Spending - April | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey | 35.0 | 37.3 | |
June 2 | |||
ADP Employment Report | 680K | 742 | 545 |
Auto Sales* - May | |||
Car Sales | 17.9K | 18.5 | |
Truck Sales | 3.9 | 4.1 | |
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | 14,0 | 14.4 | |
June 3 | |||
Productivity - Q1 (r) | 5.5% | 5.4 | 5.5 |
Unit Labor Costs | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
PMI Services Index | 70.1 | 70.1 | |
ISM Services - May | 63.5 | 62.7 | 63.2 |
June 4 | |||
Nonfarm Payrolls - May | 750K | 266 | 621 |
Private | 728 | 218 | 600 |
Manufacturing | 80 | -18 | |
Unemployment | 6.0% | 6.1 | 5.9 |
Average Workweek | 34.9HR | 35.0 | 35.0 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Factory Orders - April | 1.3% | 1.1 | |
Durable Goods Orders | 1.0 | 0.8 | |
Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.6 | 1.5 | |
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.