Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 17 And 24

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     

 

 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

 

Week of May 17

     

 

 

May 17

     

 

 

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

23.0

26.3

23.9

 

 

NAHB Index - May

84

83

83

 

 
       

 

 

May 18

     

 

 

Housing Starts - April

1.720M

1.739

1.710

 

 

Building Permits

1.780

1.766

1.770

 

 
       

 

 

May 20

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

448K

473

450

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

45.0

50.2

43

 

 

Leading Indicators

1.4%

1.3

1.4

 

 
       

 

 

May 21

     

 

 

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - May

60.5

60.5

60.4

 

 

PMI Services Flash

64.7

64.7

64.6

 

 
       

 

 

Existing Home Sales - April

6.110M

6.010

6.09

 

 
       

 

 

Week of May 24

     

 

 

May 24

     

 

 

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April

1.00

1.71

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 25

     

 

 

S&P Case/Shiller Index - March

     

 

 

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

1.2

 

 

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

1.4

1.2

 

 

 

Twenty City Y/Y

11.3%

11.9

 

 

 
       

 

 

FHFA Housing Price Index - March

1.0%

0.9

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence

120.0

121.7

 

 

 

New Home Sales - April

975K

1021K

 

 

 

Richmond Fed Index

19

17

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 27

     

 

 

Durable Goods Sales - April

1.0%

0.8

 

 

 

GDP - Q1 (p)

     

 

 

Pending Home Sale Index - April

113.4

111.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 28

     

 

 

International Trade in Goods - April

-$93.5

-90.6

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories (a) - April

1.2%

1.3

 

 

 

Personal Income - April

-14.0%

21.1

 

 

 

Chicago PMI - May

70.0

72.1

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r)

82.8

82.8

 

 

 
       

 

 

Peter Morici is an emeritus professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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