Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 16 And May 23
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of May 16 |
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May 16 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
15.0 |
24.6 |
17.0 |
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May 17 |
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Retail Sales - April |
0.5% |
0.4 |
0.8 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Industrial Production - April |
0.4% |
0.9 |
0.4 |
Capacity Utilization |
78.5 |
78.3 |
78.5 |
Manufacturing |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
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Business Inventories - March |
1.9% |
1.5 |
1.9 |
NAHB Index - May |
77 |
77 |
75 |
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May 18 |
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Housing Starts - April |
1.785M |
1.793 |
1.780 |
Building Permits |
1.800 |
1.873 |
1.838 |
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May 19 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
205K |
203 |
200 |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
17.6 |
17.6 |
16.7 |
Leading Indicators |
0.0% |
0.3 |
0.0 |
Existing Home Sales - April |
5.650M |
5.770 |
5.620 |
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Week of May 23 |
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May 23 |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April |
0.50 |
0.44 |
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May 24 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - May |
60.0 |
59.2 |
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PMI Services Flash |
57.0 |
55.6 |
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New Home Sales - April |
765K |
763 |
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Richmond Fed Index |
14 |
14 |
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May 25 |
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Durable Goods Sales - April |
0.8% |
1.1 |
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May 26 |
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GDP - Q1(p) |
-1.4% |
-1.4 |
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Pending Home Sale Index - April |
101.7 |
103.7 |
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May 27 |
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International Trade in Goods - April |
-115.0B |
-125.3 |
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Personal Income - April |
0.8 |
0.5 |
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Personal Spending |
0.5 |
1.1 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r) |
59.1 |
59.1 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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