Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 10 And 17

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of May 10      
May 11      
NFIB Small Business Optimism - April 100.0 98.2  
JOLTS -March 7.500M 7.367 7.500
       
May 12      
Consumer Price Index - April 0.2% 0.6 0.2
Core CPI 0.3 0.3 0.3
       
Treasury Budget - April  -$40.0B -659.6  
       
May 13      
Initial Unemployment Claims 400K 498 500
       
Producer Price Index - April 0.2% 1.0 0.3
PPI less food, energy and trade services 0.2 0.6 0.4
       
May 14      
Retail Sales - April 1.0% 9.8 1.0
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.7 8.4 0.9
       
Export Prices - April 0.6% 2.1 0.6
Import Prices 0.6 1.2 0.6
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum 0.6 0.9  
       
Industrial Production - April 2.7% 1.4 1.1
Capacity Utilization 76.8 74.4 75.1
Manufacturing 2.5 2.7 1.1
       
Business Inventories - March 0.4% 0.5 0.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p) 90.2 88.3 90.3
       
Week of May 17      
May 17      
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 23.0 26.3  
NAHB Index - May 84 83  
       
May 18      
Housing Starts - April 1.720M 1.739  
Building Permits 1.780 1.766  
       
May 20      
Philadelphia Fed Survey 45 50.2  
Leading Indicators  1.3% 1.3  
       
May 21      
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - May 60.5 60.5  
PMI Services Flash  64.7 64.7  
       
Existing Home Sales - April 5.900M 6.010  
       

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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