Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 4 And March 11
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of March 4 |
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March 4 |
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Construction Spending - December |
0.3% |
0.8 |
0.6 |
|
March 5 |
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ISM Services Index |
57.5 |
56.7 |
57.2 |
|
New Home Sales - December |
600K |
657 |
591 |
|
Treasury Budget - January |
$2.0B |
-13.5 |
0.0 |
|
March 6 |
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ADP Employment Report - February |
170K |
213 |
180 |
|
International Trade - December |
-$57.9B |
-49.3 |
-57.6 |
|
March 7 |
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Initial Jobless Claims |
225K |
225 |
225 |
|
Productivity - Q(4) - |
1.7% |
2.2 |
1.6 |
|
Unit Labor Cost |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
|
Consumer Credit - January |
$17.0B |
16.6 |
17.3 |
|
March 8 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - February |
180K |
304 |
178 |
|
Private |
170 |
296 |
175 |
|
Manufacturing |
15 |
13 |
10 |
|
Unemployment |
3.9% |
4.0 |
3.9 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
Housing Starts - January |
1.178M |
1.078 |
1.170 |
|
Building Permits |
1.300 |
1.326 |
1.280 |
|
Week of March 12 |
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March 11 |
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Business Inventories - December |
0.8% |
-0.1 |
||
Retail Sales - January |
0.5% |
-1.2 |
||
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.9 |
-1.8 |
||
Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas |
1.2 |
-1.4 |
||
March 12 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February |
102.5 |
101.2 |
||
Consumer Price Index - February |
0.1% |
0.0 |
||
CPI Core |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
March 13 |
||||
Durable Goods Orders - January |
-0.8% |
1.2 |
||
Producer Price Index - February |
0.2% |
-0.1 |
||
PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
March 14 |
||||
Export Prices - February |
0.0% |
-0.6 |
||
Import Prices |
0.3 |
-0.5 |
||
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum |
-0.2 |
-0.7 |
||
March 15 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
9.0 |
8.8 |
||
Industrial Production - February |
1.2% |
-0.6 |
||
Capacity Utilization |
79.0 |
78.2 |
||
Manufacturing Output |
0.4 |
-0.9 |
||
Construction Spending - January |
||||
JOLTS - January |
7.335M |
7.335 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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