Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 4 And March 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of March 4

       

March 4

       

Construction Spending - December

0.3%

0.8

0.6

 
         

March 5

       

ISM Services Index

57.5

56.7

57.2

 
         

New Home Sales - December

600K

657

591

 

Treasury Budget - January

$2.0B

-13.5

0.0

 
         

March 6

       

ADP Employment Report - February

170K

213

180

 

International Trade - December

-$57.9B

-49.3

-57.6

 
         

March 7

       

Initial Jobless Claims

225K

225

225

 
         

Productivity - Q(4) -

1.7%

2.2

1.6

 

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

0.9

1.8

 
         

Consumer Credit - January

$17.0B

16.6

17.3

 
         

March 8

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

180K

304

178

 

Private

170

296

175

 

Manufacturing

15

13

10

 

Unemployment

3.9%

4.0

3.9

 

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

 
         

Housing Starts - January

1.178M

1.078

1.170

 

Building Permits

1.300

1.326

1.280

 
         

Week of March 12

       

March 11

       

Business Inventories - December

0.8%

-0.1

   
         

Retail Sales - January

0.5%

-1.2

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.9

-1.8

   

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

1.2

-1.4

   
         

March 12

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

102.5

101.2

   
         

Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

0.0

   

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

   
         

March 13

       

Durable Goods Orders - January

-0.8%

1.2

   
         

Producer Price Index - February

0.2%

-0.1

   

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

   
         

March 14

       

Export Prices - February

0.0%

-0.6

   

Import Prices

0.3

-0.5

   

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

-0.2

-0.7

   
         
         

March 15

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

9.0

8.8

   
         

Industrial Production - February

1.2%

-0.6

   

Capacity Utilization

79.0

78.2

   

Manufacturing Output

0.4

-0.9

   
         

Construction Spending - January

       

JOLTS - January

7.335M

7.335

   
         
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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