Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 23 And March 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of March 23

       

March 23

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February

-0.60

-0.25

   
         

March 24

       

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

45.0

50.7

43.0

 

PMI Services Flash Index

45.0

49.4

42.0

 
         

New Home Sales - February

740K

764

750.0

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-4

-2

   
         

March 25

       

Durable Goods Orders - February

-1.0%

-0.2

-0.7

 

FHFA Housing Price Index - January

0.5%

0.6

   
         

March 26

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

1000K

281

775

 

International Trade in Goods - February

-$62.0B

-65.5

   

Wholesale Inventories (a) - February

-0.5%

-0.4

   
         

GDP - Q4 (f)

2.1%

2.1

2.1

 
         

March 27

       

Personal Income - February

0.4%

0.6

0.4

 

Personal Spending - February

0.2

0.2

0.2

 
         

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)

91.0

95.9

90.0

 
         

Week of March 30

       

March 30

       

Pending Home Sale Index - February

108.8

108.8

   

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.0

1.2

   
         

March 31

       

S&P Case/Shiller Index - January

       

Ten City M/M

       

Ten City Y/Y

       

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.0

   

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.4

   

Twenty City Y/Y

3.1

2.9

   

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

       
         

Chicago PMI - March

40.0

49.0

   

Consumer Confidence Index - March

120.0

130.7

   
         

April 1

       

ADP Employment Report - March

-360

183

   

ISM (Mfg) - March

43.5

50.1

   
         

Construction Spending - February

0.5%

1.8

   
         

Auto Sales* - March

15.2K

16.8

   

Car Sales

3.6

4.3

   

Truck Sales

11.6

12.6

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

       
         

April 2

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

International Trade - February

-$43.3B

-45.3

   
         

April 3

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

-350K

273

   

Private

-360

228

   

Unemployment

3.9%

3.5

   

Average Workweek

33.0HR

34.4

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

   
         

ISM Services - March

48.0

57.3

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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