Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 16 And March 23

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of March 16

       

March 16

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

6.0

12.9

4.4

 
         

March 17

       

Retail Sales - February

0.3%

0.3

0.2

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.3

0.2

 

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

0.4

0.4

   
         

Industrial Production - February

0.3%

-0.3

0.4

 

Manufacturing Output

0.3

-0.1

0.3

 

Capacity Utilization

77.0

76.8

77.0

 
         

Business Inventories - January

0.0%

0.1

-0.1

 

NAHB Index

74

74

74

 

JOLTS - January

6.300M

6.423

6.402

 
         

March 18

       

Housing Starts - January

1.500M

1.567

1.500

 

Building Permits

1.500

1.551

1.505

 
         

FMOC

0.625%

1.125

   
         

March 19

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

218

211

218

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

14.0

36.7

10.0

 

Current Account - Q4

-$109.0B

-124.1

-108.8

 

Leading Indicators - February

-0.1%

0.8

0.1

 
         

March 20

       

Existing Home Sales - February

5.430M

5.460

5.500

 
         

Week of March 23

       

March 23

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February

-0.25

-0.25

   
         

March 24

       

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

50.3

50.7

   

PMI Services Flash Index

50.0

49.4

   
         

New Home Sales - February

735K

764

   

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-2

   
         

March 25

       

Durable Goods Orders - February

-1.0%

-0.2

   

FHFA Housing Price Index - January

0.5%

0.6

   
         

March 26

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

International Trade in Goods - February

-$62.0B

-65.5

   

Wholesale Inventories (a) - February

-0.5%

-0.4

   
         

GDP - Q4 (f)

2.1%

2.1

   
         

March 27

       

Personal Income - February

0.3%

0.6

   

Personal Spending -January

0.3

0.2

   
         

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)

95.0

95.9

   
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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