Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 11 And March 18

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of March 11

       

March 11

       

Business Inventories - December

0.8%

-0.1

0.6

 
         

Retail Sales - January

0.3%

-1.2

0

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

-1.8

0.2

 

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

0.7

-1.4

0.5

 
         

March 12

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

102.5

101.2

102.8

 
         

Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

0.0

0.2

 

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

0.2

 
         

March 13

       

Durable Goods Orders - January

-0.8%

1.2

-0.8

 
         

Producer Price Index - February

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

 

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

0.2

 

Energy

       
         

Construction Spending - January

0.6%

-0.6

0.3

 
         

March 14

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

222K

223

225

 

New Home Sales - January

610K

621

620

 
         

Export Prices - February

0.0%

-0.6

0.2

 

Import Prices

0.3

-0.5

0.3

 
         

March 15

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

9.0

8.8

10.0

 
         

Industrial Production - February

1.1%

-0.6

0.4

 

Capacity Utilization

79.0

78.2

78.5

 

Manufacturing Output

0.4

-0.9

0.4

 
         

JOLTS - January

7.335M

7.335

7.155

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)

94.0

93.8

94.8

 
         

Week of March 18

       

March 18

       

NAHB Index - March

62

62

   
         

March 19

       

Factory Orders - January

-0.2%

0.1

   

Durable Goods Orders

-0.8

1.2

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

-1.0

   
         

March 20

       

FMOC

2.375%

2.375

   
         

March 21

       

Philadelphia Fed Survey

7.6

-4.1

   

Current Account - Q4

-136.0

-124.8

   

Leading Indicators - February

0.1%

-0.1

   
         

March 22

       

Existing Home Sales - February

5.100M

4.940

   

Wholesale Inventories - January

       

Treasury Budget - February

-$225.0B

8.7

   
     

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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