Sunday, February 28, 2021 10:25 PM EDT
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of March 1 |
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March 1 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - February |
58.5 |
58.5 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - February |
58.9 |
58.7 |
58.8 |
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Construction Spending - January |
0.8% |
1.0 |
0.8 |
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March 2 |
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Auto Sales - February |
16.6K |
16.6 |
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Car Sales |
3.7 |
3.7 |
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Truck Sales |
12.9 |
12.9 |
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March 3 |
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ADP Employment Report - February |
100K |
174 |
170 |
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PMI Services Index - February |
58.9 |
58.9 |
|
ISM Services Index |
58.7 |
58.7 |
58.7 |
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March 4 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
775K |
730 |
760 |
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Productivity - Q(4) - r |
-4.7 |
-4.8 |
-4.7 |
Unit Labor Cost |
6.7 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
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Factory Orders - January |
2.2% |
0.7 |
2.1 |
Durable Goods Orders |
3.4 |
0.3 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
1.0 |
1.1 |
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March 5 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - February |
150K |
49 |
165 |
Private |
175 |
6 |
190 |
Manufacturing |
20 |
-10 |
10 |
Unemployment |
6.4% |
6.3 |
6.3 |
Average Workweek |
34.9HR |
35.0 |
34.9 |
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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International Trade - January |
-$67.6B |
-66.6 |
-67.5 |
Consumer Credit - January |
$12.0B |
9.7 |
12.0 |
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Week of March 8 |
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March 8 |
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Wholesale Inventories - January |
1.3% |
1.3 |
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March 9 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February |
96.0 |
95.0 |
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March 10 |
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Consumer Price Index - February |
0.3% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
CPI Core |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
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Treasury Budget - January |
-$632B |
-162.8 |
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March 11 |
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JOLTS - January |
6.570M |
6.646 |
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March 12 |
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Producer Price Index - February |
0.3% |
1.2 |
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PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.2 |
1.2 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p) |
76.8 |
76.8 |
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