Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 22 And 29
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of June 22 |
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June 22 |
||||
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May |
-5.0 |
-16.7 |
||
Existing Home Sales - May |
4.330M |
4.330 |
4.100 |
|
June 23 |
||||
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
46.0 |
39.8 |
47.8 |
|
PMI Services Flash Index |
45.0 |
37.5 |
46.0 |
|
New Home Sales - May |
632K |
623 |
639 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
0.0 |
-27 |
||
June 24 |
||||
FHFA Home Price Index - April |
0.3% |
0.1 |
||
June 25 |
||||
Initial Unemployment Claims |
1400K |
1508 |
1300 |
|
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
12.0 |
-19 |
||
Durable Goods Orders - May |
10.0 |
-17.7 |
10.5 |
|
International Trade in Goods - May |
-$65B |
-69.7 |
||
Wholesale Inventories - May (a) |
0.4% |
0.3 |
||
GDP - Q1 (f) |
-5.0% |
-5.0 |
-5.0 |
|
June 26 |
||||
Personal Income - May |
-5.0% |
10.5 |
-6.0 |
|
Personal Spending |
10.0 |
-13.6 |
9.0 |
|
PCE Price Index |
-0.5 |
|||
Core PCE Price Index |
-0.4 |
|||
Real Personal Spending |
||||
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r) |
78.9 |
78.9 |
79.0 |
|
Week of June 29 |
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June 29 |
||||
Pending Home Sales Index - May |
85.0 |
69.0 |
||
Dallas Fed General Business Activity |
-35.0 |
-49.2 |
||
June 30 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - April |
||||
Twenty City M/M |
1.0% |
1.1 |
||
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.5 |
0.5 |
||
Twenty City Y/Y |
4.1 |
3.9 |
||
Chicago PMI - June |
38.0 |
32.3 |
||
Consumer Confidence |
90.0 |
86.6 |
||
July 1 |
||||
ADP Employment Report - July |
2900K |
-2760 |
||
PMI Manufacturing Index - June |
||||
ISM (Mfg) - June |
47.5 |
43.1 |
||
Auto Sales* - June |
13.0K |
12.2 |
||
Car Sales |
3.0 |
2.6 |
||
Truck Sales |
10.0 |
9.6 |
||
Construction Spending - May |
0.5% |
-2.9 |
||
July 2 |
||||
Nonfarm Payrolls - June |
2900K |
2509K |
||
Private |
3000 |
3094 |
||
Core Private* |
||||
Manufacturing |
500 |
225 |
||
Unemployment |
12.1% |
13.3 |
||
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.7 |
||
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.0% |
-1.0 |
||
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
||||
International Trade - May |
-$43.5B |
-49.4 |
||
Factory Orders - May |
7.8 |
-13.0 |
||
Durable Goods Orders |
12.0 |
-17.7 |
||
Nondurable Goods Orders |
2.0 |
-9.0 |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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