Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 6 And 13

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 6

     

July 6

     

PMI Services Index

46.7

46.7

 

ISM Services - June

49.0

45.4

49.5

July 7

     

JOLTS - May

4.800M

5.046

 

July 8

     

Consumer Credit - May

-19.0B

-68.7

-17.5

July 9

     

Initial Unemployment Claims

1400K

1427

1375

Wholesale Inventories - May

-1.2%

-1.2

-1.2

July 10

     

Producer Producer Index - June

0.3%

0.4

0.4

Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services

0.1

0.1

0.1

Week of July 13

     

July 13

     

Treasury Budget - June

-$700.0B

-398.8

 

July 14

     

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July

94.4

94.4

 

Consumer Price Index - June

0.3%

-0.1

 

Core CPI

0.1

-0.1

 

Energy

     

July 15

     

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

-0.2

 

Export Prices -  June

0.8%

0.5

 

Import Prices

1.0

1.0

 

Import Prices, ex-Energy

-0.1

0.1

 

Industrial Production - June

4.3%

1.4

 

Capacity Utilization

68.8

64.8

 

Manufacturing

5.5

3.8

 

July 16

     

Initial Unemployment Claims

     

Retail Sales - June

6.0%

17.7

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

7.2

12.4

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

6.5

12.4

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

15.0

27.5

 

Business Inventories - May

-1.5%

-1.6

 

NAHB Index - July

64

58

 

July 17

     

Housing Starts - June

1.100M

974

 

Building Permits

1.300

1220

 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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