Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 13

July 13

Treasury Budget - June

-$865B

-398.8

-863

July 14

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July

94.4

94.4

Consumer Price Index - June

0.5%

-0.1

0.6

Core CPI

0.1

-0.1

0.1

July 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.5

-0.2

9.25

Export Prices - June

0.8%

0.5

0.8

Import Prices

1.0

1.0

1.0

Import Prices, ex-Energy

-0.1

0.1

Industrial Production - June

4.3%

1.4

4.4

Capacity Utilization

68.8

64.8

67.6

Manufacturing

5.5

3.8

July 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

1275K

1314

1250

Retail Sales - June

6.0%

17.7

5.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos

6.6

12.4

5.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

6.0

12.4

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.0

27.5

20.0

Business Inventories - May

-2.2%

-1.6

-2.3

NAHB Index - July

64

58

60

July 17

Housing Starts - June

1.125M

974

1.167

Building Permits

1.300

1220

1.280

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

79.5

78.1

79.0

Week of July 20

July 21

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

4.00

2.61

July 22

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.3%

0.2

Existing Home Sales - June

5.100M

3.910M

July 23

Leading Indicators

2.2%

2.8

2.3

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

5

1

July 24

New Home Sales - June

685K

676

647