Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 13 And 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 13

     

July 13

     

Treasury Budget - June

-$865B

-398.8

-863

       

July 14

     

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July

94.4

94.4

 
       

Consumer Price Index - June

0.5%

-0.1

0.6

Core CPI

0.1

-0.1

0.1

       

July 15

     

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.5

-0.2

9.25

       

Export Prices - June

0.8%

0.5

0.8

Import Prices

1.0

1.0

1.0

Import Prices, ex-Energy

-0.1

0.1

 
       

Industrial Production - June

4.3%

1.4

4.4

Capacity Utilization

68.8

64.8

67.6

Manufacturing

5.5

3.8

 
       

July 16

     

Initial Unemployment Claims

1275K

1314

1250

       

Retail Sales - June

6.0%

17.7

5.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos

6.6

12.4

5.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

6.0

12.4

 
       

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.0

27.5

20.0

Business Inventories - May

-2.2%

-1.6

-2.3

NAHB Index - July

64

58

60

       

July 17

     

Housing Starts - June

1.125M

974

1.167

Building Permits

1.300

1220

1.280

       

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

79.5

78.1

79.0

       

Week of July 20

     

July 21

     

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

4.00

2.61

 
       

July 22

     

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.3%

0.2

 

Existing Home Sales - June

5.100M

3.910M

 
       

July 23

     

Leading Indicators

2.2%

2.8

2.3

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

5

1

 
       

July 24

     

New Home Sales - June

685K

676

647

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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