Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 18 And 25
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of January 18 | |||
| January 21 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 875K | 965 | 868 |
| Housing Starts - December | 1.564M | 1.547 | 1.560 |
| Building Permits | 1.600 | 1.635 | 1.604 |
| Philadelphia Fed Index | 14.0 | 11.1 | 12.0 |
| January 22 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January | 57.1 | 57.1 | 56.5 |
| PMI Services Flash Index - January | 53.0 | 54.8 | 53.5 |
| Existing Home Sales - December | 6.400M | 6.690 | 6.540 |
| NAHB Index - January | 86 | 86 | 86 |
| Week of January 25 | |||
| January 25 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - December | 0.10 | 0.27 | |
| January 26 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - November | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.3% | 1.3 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.7 | 1.6 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 8.1 | 7.9 | |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - November | 0.5% | 1.5 | |
| Consumer Confidence - January | 92.6 | 88.6 | |
| Richmond Fed Index | 19 | 19 | |
| January 27 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - December | 2.4% | 1.0 | |
| FMOC | 0.125% | 0.125 | |
| January 28 | |||
| GDP - Q4 (a) | 3.5% | 33.4 | |
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator | |||
| International Trade in Goods (a) | -$83.5B | -84.8 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) | 0.5% | 0.0 | |
| Leading Indicators | 0.6% | 0.6 | |
| New Home Sales - December | 900K | 841.0 | |
| January 29 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q4 | 0.5% | 0.5 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 2.2 | 2.4 | |
| Personal Income - December | 0.0% | -1.1 | |
| Personal Spending | -0.5 | -0.4 | |
| Chicago PMI - January | 58.5 | 59.5 | |
| Pending Home Sales - December | 124.0 | 125.7 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f) | 79.2 | 79.2 | |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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