Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 18 And 25

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of January 18      
January 21      
Initial Unemployment Claims 875K 965 868
Housing Starts - December 1.564M 1.547 1.560
Building Permits 1.600 1.635 1.604
       
Philadelphia Fed Index 14.0 11.1 12.0
       
January 22      
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January 57.1 57.1 56.5
PMI Services Flash Index - January 53.0 54.8 53.5
       
Existing Home Sales - December 6.400M 6.690 6.540
NAHB Index - January 86 86 86
       
Week of January 25      
January 25      
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - December 0.10 0.27  
       
January 26      
S&P Case/Shiller Index - November      
Twenty City M/M 0.3% 1.3  
Twenty City M/M - SA 0.7 1.6  
Twenty City Y/Y 8.1 7.9  
       
FHFA Housing Market Index - November 0.5% 1.5  
Consumer Confidence - January  92.6 88.6  
Richmond Fed Index 19 19  
       
January 27      
Durable Goods Orders - December 2.4% 1.0  
FMOC 0.125% 0.125  
       
January 28      
GDP - Q4 (a) 3.5% 33.4  
GDP Implicit Price Deflator      
       
International Trade in Goods (a) -$83.5B -84.8  
Wholesale Inventories (a) 0.5% 0.0  
Leading Indicators 0.6% 0.6  
New Home Sales - December 900K 841.0  
       
January 29      
Employment Cost Index - Q4 0.5% 0.5  
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y 2.2 2.4  
       
Personal Income - December 0.0% -1.1  
Personal Spending -0.5 -0.4  
       
Chicago PMI - January 58.5 59.5  
Pending Home Sales - December  124.0 125.7  
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f) 79.2 79.2  
       
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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