Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 3

February 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

51.7

51.7

ISM (Mfg) - January

47.5

47.1

48.5

Construction Spending - January

0.3%

0.6

0.5

Auto Sales* - January

16.8K

16.7

Car Sales

4.6

4.5

Truck Sales

12.2

12.2

February 4

Factory Orders - December

1.4%

-0.7

1.2

Durable Goods Orders

2.5

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.6

ADP Employment Survey - January

140K

202

159

February 5

International Trade

-$47.5B

-43.1

-48.0

PMI Services Index - January

53.2

53.2

ISM Services - January

55.2

55.0

55.1

February 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

216

215

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.4%

-0.2

1.5

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

2.5

February 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

150K

145

156

Private

140

139

150

Manufacturing

-12

-12

-3

Unemployment

3.5%

3.5

3.5

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

Wholesale Inventories (f)

-0.1%

-0.1

-0.1

Consumer Credit - December

$15.0B

12.7

14.0

Week of February 10

February 11

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January

103

103

JOLTS - December

6.700M

6.800

February 12

Treasury Budget - January

$12.5B

-13.3

February 13

Consumer Price Index - January

0.2%

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

February 14

Retail Sales - January

0.3%

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.7

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.5

Export Prices - January

0.0%

-0.2

Import Prices

-0.3

0.3

Industrial Production - January

-0.3%

-0.3

Manufacturing Output

0.1

0.2

Capacity Utilization

76.8

77.0

Business inventories - December

0.1%

-0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)

97.8

99.8