Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of February 3

       

February 3

       

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

51.7

51.7

   

ISM (Mfg) - January

47.5

47.1

48.5

 

Construction Spending - January

0.3%

0.6

0.5

 
         

Auto Sales* - January

16.8K

16.7

   

Car Sales

4.6

4.5

   

Truck Sales

12.2

12.2

   
         

February 4

       

Factory Orders - December

1.4%

-0.7

1.2

 

Durable Goods Orders

2.5

-2.1

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.6

   
         

ADP Employment Survey - January

140K

202

159

 
         

February 5

       

International Trade

-$47.5B

-43.1

-48.0

 
         

PMI Services Index - January

53.2

53.2

   

ISM Services - January

55.2

55.0

55.1

 
         

February 6

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

216

215

 
         

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.4%

-0.2

1.5

 

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

2.5

   
         

February 7

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

150K

145

156

 

Private

140

139

150

 

Manufacturing

-12

-12

-3

 

Unemployment

3.5%

3.5

3.5

 

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

34.3

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

 
         

Wholesale Inventories (f)

-0.1%

-0.1

-0.1

 

Consumer Credit - December

$15.0B

12.7

14.0

 
         

Week of February 10

       

February 11

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January

103

103

   

JOLTS - December

6.700M

6.800

   
         

February 12

       

Treasury Budget - January

$12.5B

-13.3

   
         

February 13

       

Consumer Price Index - January

0.2%

0.2

   

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

   
         

February 14

       

Retail Sales - January

0.3%

0.3

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.7

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.5

   
         

Export Prices - January

0.0%

-0.2

   

Import Prices

-0.3

0.3

   
         

Industrial Production - January

-0.3%

-0.3

   

Manufacturing Output

0.1

0.2

   

Capacity Utilization

76.8

77.0

   
         

Business inventories - December

0.1%

-0.2

   

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)

97.8

99.8

   
         
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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