Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 15 And 22

Updating my preliminary report from Thursday - 

 
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of February 15      
February 16      
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 5 3.5 6.2
       
February 17      
Retail Sales - January 0.6% -0.7 1.0
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.8 -1.4 1.0
       
Producer Price Index - January 0.3% 0.3 0.4
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) 0.2 0.4  
       
Industrial Production - January 0.4% 1.6 0.4
Manufacturing Output 0.5 0.9 0.5
Capacity Utilization 74.8 74.5 74.8
       
Business Iinventories - December 0.3% 0.5 0.5
NAHB Index - February  83 83 83
       
February 18      
Housing Starts - January 1.650M 1.669 1.655
Building Permits 1.670 1.709 1.680
       
Philadelphia Fed Survey 20.0 26.5 20.0
       
Export Prices - January 0.9% 1.1 0.8
Import Prices 1.0 0.9 1.0
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum 0.5 0.4  
       
Initial Unemployment Claims 760K 793 755
       
February 19      
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index 59.2 59.2 58.5
PMI Services Flash Index 58.5 58.5 5.75
       
Existing Home Sales - January 6.560M 6.760 6.60
       
Week of February 22      
February 22      
Leading Indicators - January 0.3% 0.3  
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 8.5 7.0  
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.45 0.52  
       
February 23      
S&P Case/Shiller Index - December      
Twenty City M/M 0.8% 1.1  
Twenty City M/M - SA 1.2 1.4  
Twenty City Y/Y 9.9 9.1  
       
FHFA Housing Market Index - December 0.8% 1.0  
Consumer Confidence Index - February 90.0 89.3  
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14 14  
       
February 24      
New Home Sales - Jan 855K 842  
       
February 25      
Durable Goods Orders - January 0.9% 0.3  
       
GDP - Q4 (p) 4.0% 4.0  
       
Pending Home Sales - January 125.5 125.5  
       
February 26      
International Trade in Goods - January (a) -$83.2B -82.5  
Wholesale Inventories (a) - January   0.3  
       
Personal Income - January 11.0% 0.6  
Personal Spending 0.5 -0.2  
       
Chicago PMI - February 60.0 63.8  
       
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) 77.5 76.2  
       

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.