Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 15 And 22
Updating my preliminary report from Thursday -
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of February 15 | |||
| February 16 | |||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| February 17 | |||
| Retail Sales - January | 0.6% | -0.7 | 1.0 |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.8 | -1.4 | 1.0 |
| Producer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.2 | 0.4 | |
| Industrial Production - January | 0.4% | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Manufacturing Output | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Capacity Utilization | 74.8 | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Business Iinventories - December | 0.3% | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| NAHB Index - February | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| February 18 | |||
| Housing Starts - January | 1.650M | 1.669 | 1.655 |
| Building Permits | 1.670 | 1.709 | 1.680 |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | 20.0 | 26.5 | 20.0 |
| Export Prices - January | 0.9% | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Import Prices | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 760K | 793 | 755 |
| February 19 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 59.2 | 59.2 | 58.5 |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 58.5 | 58.5 | 5.75 |
| Existing Home Sales - January | 6.560M | 6.760 | 6.60 |
| Week of February 22 | |||
| February 22 | |||
| Leading Indicators - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.5 | 7.0 | |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.45 | 0.52 | |
| February 23 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - December | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.8% | 1.1 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.2 | 1.4 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 9.9 | 9.1 | |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - December | 0.8% | 1.0 | |
| Consumer Confidence Index - February | 90.0 | 89.3 | |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 14 | 14 | |
| February 24 | |||
| New Home Sales - Jan | 855K | 842 | |
| February 25 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - January | 0.9% | 0.3 | |
| GDP - Q4 (p) | 4.0% | 4.0 | |
| Pending Home Sales - January | 125.5 | 125.5 | |
| February 26 | |||
| International Trade in Goods - January (a) | -$83.2B | -82.5 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) - January | 0.3 | ||
| Personal Income - January | 11.0% | 0.6 | |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | -0.2 | |
| Chicago PMI - February | 60.0 | 63.8 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) | 77.5 | 76.2 | |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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