Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 1 And 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of  February 1      
February 1      
PMI Manufacturing Index - January 59.1 59.1  
ISM (Mfg) - January 60.2 60.7 60.0
       
Construction Spending - January 0.8% 0.9  
       
February 2      
Auto Sales - January 16.3M 16.3  
Car Sales 3.7 3.7  
Truck Sales 10.6 10.6  
February 3      
ADP Employment Survey - January 40K -123 45
PMI Services Index - January 57.5 57.5  
ISM Services - January 56.8 57.2 56.8
       
February 4      
Initial Unemployment Claims 840K 847 830
       
Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary -3.0% 4.6 -2.9
Unit Labor Cost 3.8 -6.6 3.6
       
Factory Orders - December 0.7% 1.0 0.7
Durable Goods Orders 0.2 1.0  
Nondurable Goods Orders  1.2 1.1  
       
February 5      
Nonfarm Payrolls - January 20K -140 50
Private 40 -95.0 40
Manufacturing 30 38 30
Unemployment 6.8% 6.7 6.7
Average Workweek 34.7 34.7 34.7
Average Hourly Earnings 0.4% 0.8 0.3
       
International Trade -$65.8B -68.1 -65.7
Consumer Credit - December $12M 15.3 12.0
       
Week of February 8      
February 9      
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January 98.5 95.9  
JOLTS - December 6.400K 6.527  
       
February 10      
Consumer Price Index - January 0.4% 0.4 0.3
Core CPI 0.2 0.1 0.2
       
Wholesale Inventories (f) 0.1% 0.1  
Treasury Budget - January -$625B -143.6  
       

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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