Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 25 And March 4

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of February 25

       

February 25

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.3

0.27

   

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

3.0

1.0

   
         

Wholesale Inventories - December

0.1%

0.3

   
         

February 26

       

Housing Starts - December

1.256M

1.256

1.253

 

Building Permits

1.300

1.328

1.273

 
         

S&P Case/Shiller Index - December

       

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3

   

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.0

-0.1

   
         

FHFA Housing Market Index - December

0.4%

0.4

   

Consumer Confidence Index - February

123.4

120.0

122.8

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-2

   
         

February 27

       

International Trade in Goods - December (a)

-$73.0B

-70.5

-75.6

 

Factory Orders - December

0.5%

-0.6

0.6

 

Pending Home Sales - January

100.1

99.1

100

 
         

February 28

       

GDP - Q4 (p)

2.8%

3.4

   

Chicago PMI - February

60.0

56.7

   
         

March 1

       

Auto Sales* - February

17.1M

16.6

17.0

 

Car Sales

5.3

5.2

   

Truck Sales

11.8

11.4

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

       
         

Personal Income - December

0.4%

0.2

0.4

 

Personal Spending

0.2

0.4

0.1

 
         
         

Personal Income - January

0.3%

     

Personal Spending

0.4

     
         

ISM (Mfg) - February

55.5

56.6

55.9

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r)

95.5

95.5

   
         

Week of March 4

       

March 4

       

Construction Spending - December

0.8%

0.8

   

Construction Spending - January

0.6

     
         

March 5

       

ISM Services Index

57.5

58.0

   

New Home Sales - December

610K

657.0

   
         

March 6

       

International Trade - January

-$51.3B

-49.3

   
         

March 7

       

Productivity - Q(4) -

1.7%

2.2

   

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

0.9

   
         

Consumer Credit - January

$17.0B

16.6

   
         

March 8

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

190K

304

   

Private

180

296

   

Manufacturing

15

13

   

Unemployment

3.9%

4.0

   

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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