Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 25 And March 4
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of February 25 |
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February 25 |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
0.3 |
0.27 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
3.0 |
1.0 |
||
Wholesale Inventories - December |
0.1% |
0.3 |
||
February 26 |
||||
Housing Starts - December |
1.256M |
1.256 |
1.253 |
|
Building Permits |
1.300 |
1.328 |
1.273 |
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - December |
||||
Twenty City M/M |
0.4% |
0.3 |
||
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
||
FHFA Housing Market Index - December |
0.4% |
0.4 |
||
Consumer Confidence Index - February |
123.4 |
120.0 |
122.8 |
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
0 |
-2 |
||
February 27 |
||||
International Trade in Goods - December (a) |
-$73.0B |
-70.5 |
-75.6 |
|
Factory Orders - December |
0.5% |
-0.6 |
0.6 |
|
Pending Home Sales - January |
100.1 |
99.1 |
100 |
|
February 28 |
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GDP - Q4 (p) |
2.8% |
3.4 |
||
Chicago PMI - February |
60.0 |
56.7 |
||
March 1 |
||||
Auto Sales* - February |
17.1M |
16.6 |
17.0 |
|
Car Sales |
5.3 |
5.2 |
||
Truck Sales |
11.8 |
11.4 |
||
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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Personal Income - December |
0.4% |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
Personal Income - January |
0.3% |
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Personal Spending |
0.4 |
|||
ISM (Mfg) - February |
55.5 |
56.6 |
55.9 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) |
95.5 |
95.5 |
||
Week of March 4 |
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March 4 |
||||
Construction Spending - December |
0.8% |
0.8 |
||
Construction Spending - January |
0.6 |
|||
March 5 |
||||
ISM Services Index |
57.5 |
58.0 |
||
New Home Sales - December |
610K |
657.0 |
||
March 6 |
||||
International Trade - January |
-$51.3B |
-49.3 |
||
March 7 |
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Productivity - Q(4) - |
1.7% |
2.2 |
||
Unit Labor Cost |
1.8 |
0.9 |
||
Consumer Credit - January |
$17.0B |
16.6 |
||
March 8 |
||||
Nonfarm Payrolls - February |
190K |
304 |
||
Private |
180 |
296 |
||
Manufacturing |
15 |
13 |
||
Unemployment |
3.9% |
4.0 |
||
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
||
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.1 |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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