Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 9 And 16
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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of December 9 |
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December 9 |
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December 10 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November |
103.1 |
102.4 |
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Productivity - Q3 (r) |
-0.1% |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
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Unit Labor Costs |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
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December 11 |
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Consumer Price Index - November |
0.2% |
0.4 |
0.2 |
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Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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Energy |
1.4 |
2.7 |
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FMOC |
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Treasury Budget - November |
-$196.0B |
-134.5 |
-195.0 |
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December 12 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
215K |
203 |
212 |
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Producer Price Index - November |
0.2% |
0.4 |
0.2 |
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PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.2 |
0.1 |
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Energy |
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December 13 |
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Retail Sales - November |
0.5% |
0.3 |
0.4 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
0.4 |
0.1 |
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Retail Sales, Autos |
0.5 |
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Export Prices - November |
0.1% |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
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Import Prices |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
0.2 |
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Business Inventories - October |
0.3% |
0.0 |
0.3 |
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Week of December 17 |
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December 16 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
5.0 |
2.9 |
4.5 |
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PMI Services Flash Index |
52.5 |
51.6 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
52.8 |
52.6 |
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NAHB Index |
71 |
70 |
70 |
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December 17 |
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Housing Starts - November |
1.300M |
1.314 |
1.320 |
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Building Permits |
1.380 |
1.461 |
1.398 |
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Industrial Production - November |
0.9% |
-0.8 |
0.8 |
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Capacity Utilization |
76.9 |
76.7 |
77.0 |
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Manufacturing |
0.7 |
-0.6 |
0.5 |
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JOLTS-October |
6.950M |
7.024 |
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December 18 |
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December 19 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
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Philadelphia Fed Survey |
9.0 |
10.4 |
8.5 |
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Current Account - Q3 |
-$121.0B |
-128.2 |
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Existing Home Sales - November |
5.420M |
5.460 |
5.47 |
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Leading Indicators - Nobember |
0.2% |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
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December 20 |
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GDP - Q3 (f) |
2.1% |
2.1 |
2.1 |
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GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
1.7 |
1.7 |
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PCE |
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PCE Deflator |
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PCE Core Deflator |
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Personal Income - November |
0.3% |
0.0 |
0.3 |
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Personal Spending |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
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PCE Price Index |
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Core PCE Price Index |
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Real Personal Spending |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r) |
99.2 |
99.2 |
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Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. |
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