Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 31 And September 7
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of August 31 |
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August 31 |
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Chicago PMI |
51.9 |
51.9 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
0.0 |
-3.0 |
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September 1 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - August |
53.6 |
53.6 |
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ISM (Mfg) - August |
54.8 |
54.2 |
54.5 |
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Construction Spending - July |
0.8% |
-0.7 |
1.0 |
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Auto Sales* - August |
14.8 |
14.5 |
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Car Sales |
3.6 |
3.5 |
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Truck Sales |
11.2 |
11.0 |
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September 2 |
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ADP Employment Report - August |
1000K |
167 |
900 |
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Factory Orders - July |
7.0% |
6.2 |
6.0 |
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Durable Goods Orders |
11.2 |
7.6 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
3.8 |
5.0 |
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September 3 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
1000K |
1006.0 |
980 |
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International Trade - July |
-$59.8B |
-50.7 |
-52.7 |
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Productivity - Q2 (r) |
7.3% |
7.3 |
7.4 |
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Unit Labor Costs |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.1 |
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PMI Services Index - August |
54.8 |
54.8 |
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ISM Services - August |
57.5 |
58.1 |
57.0 |
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September 4 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - August |
1550K |
1763 |
1400 |
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Private |
1400 |
1462 |
1250 |
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Manufacturing |
100 |
26 |
50 |
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Unemployment |
10.1% |
10.2 |
9.8 |
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Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
34.5 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
-0.4% |
0.2 |
0.0 |
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Week of September 7 |
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September 8 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - August |
98.8 |
98.8 |
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Consumer Credit - July |
$14.0B |
8.9 |
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September 9 |
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JOLTS - July |
6.000M |
5.889 |
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September 10 |
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Producer Price Index - August |
0.3% |
0.6 |
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PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services) |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Wholesale Inventories - July |
-0.1% |
-0.1 |
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September 11 |
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Consumer Price Index - August |
0.3% |
0.6 |
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Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.6 |
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Treasury Budget - August |
-$380.0 |
-63.0 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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